Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:58:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x9291…4b99 crypto 137 markets active 1h ago coverage 234d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate98%131W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$4
politics 3% +$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 28 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 76 -1.2% -10.6% 99% 0% -10.0%
all 134 -0.6% -10.1% 98% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$5 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

234d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses131 / 3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)134 / 137
History coverage234d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 134 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $23 $24 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 June 15-21? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $40 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 June 8-14? Jun 15 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 on June 12? Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $71,000 on June 12? Jun 13 $20 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 62,800 on June 12, 1AM ET? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 10? Jun 12 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 10? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $54,000 and $56,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 9? Jun 11 $50 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $40 June 1-7? Jun 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $110 June 1-7? Jun 09 $20 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $100 June 1-7? Jun 09 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on June 4? Jun 06 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 4? Jun 06 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 3? Jun 04 $30 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 on May 31? Jun 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on June 1? Jun 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $68,000 on June 1? Jun 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 03 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 28? Jun 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on May 28? Jun 01 $30 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? May 28 $60 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on May 20? May 26 $0 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on May 20? May 26 $45 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $69,000 on May 18? May 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 on May 18? May 20 $30 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 on May 16? May 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $87,000 on May 16? May 18 $30 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 on May 13? May 16 $30 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 on May 10? May 13 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 7? May 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on May 7? May 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 6? May 07 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 on May 5? May 07 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in April? May 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in April? May 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? May 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on April 30? May 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 30? May 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? May 02 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 April 20-26? Apr 30 $10 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 April 20-26? Apr 30 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on April 21? Apr 30 $40 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $80,000 on April 20? Apr 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on April 19? Apr 20 $40 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on April 15? Apr 18 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 15? Apr 18 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on April 13? Apr 15 $10 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 June 15-21? BUY No 100¢ $20 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $12 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $12 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $10 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $10 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $10 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $30 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $10 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $71,000 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $20 5d
Bitcoin above 62,800 on June 12, 1AM ET? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 5d
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 June 8-14? BUY No 100¢ $20 6d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $6 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $54,000 and $56,000 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $10 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $10 6d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $10 9d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $40 9d
Will Solana dip to $40 June 1-7? BUY No 100¢ $10 11d
Will Solana reach $100 June 1-7? BUY No 100¢ $50 11d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $10 13d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $10 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $20 13d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $30 15d
Will Solana reach $110 June 1-7? BUY No 100¢ $20 15d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $10 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $68,000 on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $10 16d
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 on May 31? BUY No 100¢ $5 16d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $30 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $10 20d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $60 20d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $50 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.40 · official $53.40 (match) · 297 history records