Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T09:55:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x9292…7d85 politics 189 markets active 1h ago coverage 148d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,839 (+1%) realized +$1,839 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate21%39W / 149L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$1,761per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$204now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days−$33
14 days−$60
30 days−$150
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 52% −$202
other 33% −$76
sports 10% +$2,116
world 2% +$4
culture 2% −$7
economics 2% $0
tech 0% +$1
crypto 0% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 45 -1.4% -10.8% 13% 4% -9.7%
≤90d 108 -2.6% -11.9% 8% 5% -9.0%
all 188 +1.3% -8.4% 21% 10% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 10% -9.0%
10% -17.1% 10% -17.7%
15% -25.1% 10% -25.7%
20% -32.5% 9% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 67% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
51% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,676) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +4% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$75 vs −$8 · ×9.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.56 per $1 lost it wins $2.56
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$204
Realized+$1,839
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses39 / 149
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions1
Markets (closed)188 / 189
History coverage148d
Avg bet$1,761
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 188 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $204 $204 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 26 $7,404 −$9 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 26 $2,251 −$4 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 24 $7,042 −$7 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 24 $725 −$1 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 24 $639 −$1 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 22 $1,119 −$2 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $7,417 −$9 -0%
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 22 $459 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $1,530 −$2 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $5,346 −$6 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $1,025 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $5,400 −$7 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $814 +$3 +0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Jun 17 $2,015 −$2 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $892 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $458 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $1,794 −$3 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $552 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $8,247 −$9 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 12 $225 +$3 +1%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 12 $228 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $1,134 −$2 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $6,128 −$7 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 10 $1,841 −$2 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $326 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $1,805 −$3 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $552 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $2,042 −$3 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $553 −$1 -0%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $58 +$39 +67%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $3,605 −$4 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 05 $1,957 −$3 -0%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 05 $54 −$54 -100%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $520 −$1 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $1,256 −$2 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $524 −$1 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $440 −$1 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 $68 −$68 -100%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $471 −$1 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $3,934 −$5 -0%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 02 $43 +$32 +73%
Will Solana reach $130 in May? Jun 02 $80 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in May? Jun 02 $496 +$1 +0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $2,022 −$2 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $1,621 −$2 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $1,806 −$2 -0%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers May 25 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $3,070 −$4 -0%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $51 +$37 +73%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 May 23 $50 +$45 +90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $651 1h
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $652 3h
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $652 5h
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $653 8h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $649 46h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $650 2d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $653 2d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $653 2d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $638 2d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $639 2d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,117 4d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,119 4d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $647 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $204 4d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $648 4d
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $459 4d
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $459 4d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $669 7d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $670 7d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $657 7d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $658 7d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $1,024 8d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $1,025 8d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $859 8d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $860 8d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,044 8d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,046 8d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec SELL No 100¢ $521 8d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $522 9d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $520 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $203.90 · official $203.90 (match) · 723 history records