Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T16:35:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
92 0x9293…9312 tech 19 markets active 2h ago coverage 223d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate89%17W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$90per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$193now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% +$7
tech 23% +$1
crypto 11% −$3
economics 11% +$2
politics 2% $0
sports 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 5 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 8 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.1%
all 19 -7.5% -16.3% 89% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.3% 0% -9.4%
10% -24.3% 0% -18.0%
15% -31.6% 0% -26.0%
20% -38.3% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 62% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.34 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

223d coverage
Net worth$193
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses17 / 2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)19 / 19
History coverage223d
Avg bet$90
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 19 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 28? Jun 28 $191 +$2 +1%
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit? Jun 26 $30 $0 +0%
Will Google Gemini be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 15? Jun 26 $40 $0 +0%
Will Kling AI: AI Image&Video Maker be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Jun 26 $45 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $188 Week of May 11 2026? Jun 26 $76 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026? May 14 $190 $0 +0%
Will Temu: Shop Like a Billionaire be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Apr 13 $24 $0 +0%
Will Claude by Anthropic be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on M Apr 13 $56 $0 +0%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 27? Mar 27 $110 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026? Mar 27 $190 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from March 2 to March 4, 2026? Mar 22 $72 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 22 $118 $0 +0%
Will Google Gemini be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on Februar Mar 03 $36 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026? Mar 03 $40 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026? Mar 03 $112 +$1 +1%
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? Feb 04 $6 −$6 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 19 $183 +$2 +1%
Will Alaves win the 2025–26 La Liga? Jan 01 $6 −$3 -50%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 20 Dec 14 $190 +$5 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 28? BUY Down 99¢ $165 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 28? BUY Down 99¢ $26 1h
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $188 Week of May 11 2026? BUY No 100¢ $76 45d
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit? BUY No 100¢ $30 45d
Will Kling AI: AI Image&Video Maker be #1 Free App in the US Apple App BUY No 100¢ $45 45d
Will Google Gemini be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 15? BUY No 100¢ $40 45d
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $166 76d
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $25 76d
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 27? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 93d
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 27? SELL Yes 100¢ $90 93d
Will Claude by Anthropic be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on M BUY No 100¢ $56 93d
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 93d
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $3 93d
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 93d
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $23 93d
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 93d
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 93d
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $24 93d
Will Temu: Shop Like a Billionaire be #1 Free App in the US Apple App BUY No 100¢ $24 93d
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $190 98d
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from March 2 to March 4, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $72 117d
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $50 117d
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $68 117d
Will Google Gemini be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on Februar BUY No 99¢ $36 144d
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $112 145d
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $40 145d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? SELL No 100¢ $185 159d
Will Alaves win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL Yes $3 178d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY No 99¢ $183 196d
Will Alaves win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY Yes $6 196d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $192.68 · official $192.68 (match) · 48 history records