Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:35:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0

score

92 0x9296…f9ab other 28 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample

✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$59 (+22%) realized +$49 · open +$10

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +56% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +36% what you keep after slip

Net edge+36%after slip

Net WR14%break-even

Win rate14%3W / 18L

Drawdown83%max

Avg bet$10per market

Trades / day4.1pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit46%portable

Net worth$104now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days$0

7 days+$70

14 days+$60

30 days+$60

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +14%

net ROI/market (all)+41.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	20	+63.7%	+48.1%	15%	15%	+29.4%
≤30d	21	+55.9%	+41.1%	14%	14%	+21.9%
≤90d	21	+55.9%	+41.1%	14%	14%	+21.9%
all	21	+55.9%	+41.1%	14%	14%	+21.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover4.1 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+41.1%	14%	+21.9%
10%	+27.6%	14%	+10.2%
15%	+15.3%	14%	-0.4%
20%	+4.0%	14%	-10.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 64% · top 2 89% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +35% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +56% · $-wt +35% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +71% → late +43% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$69 vs −$8 · ×8.42 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.4 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage

Net worth$104

Realized+$49

Unrealized+$10

Win rate (resolved)14%

Wins / losses3 / 18

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions7

Markets (closed)21 / 28

History coverage7d

Avg bet$10

Trades / day4.1

Drawdown83%

Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 7 History 21 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	Yes	57¢	99¢	$28	$50	+$21 (+74%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Yes	67¢	68¢	$40	$40	+$0 (+1%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	Yes	21¢	20¢	$10	$10	−$0 (-2%)
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire?	Yes	8¢	8¢	$4	$4	−$0 (-6%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Sweden?	Yes	5¢	0¢	$5	$0	−$4 (-99%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Sweden?	Yes	7¢	0¢	$4	$0	−$3 (-99%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Sweden?	Yes	7¢	0¢	$3	$0	−$3 (-99%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo?	Jun 17	$4	−$4	-97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo?	Jun 17	$9	−$8	-98%
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 1 DR Congo?	Jun 17	$2	−$2	-97%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?	Jun 17	$0	$0	-97%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	Jun 15	$4	+$53	+1469%
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	Jun 15	$18	−$18	-98%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 2 Cabo Verde?	Jun 15	$3	−$3	-97%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde?	Jun 15	$10	−$10	-97%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde?	Jun 15	$7	−$7	-98%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde?	Jun 15	$6	−$6	-98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Japan?	Jun 14	$5	−$5	-97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Japan?	Jun 14	$10	−$10	-98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score	Jun 14	$10	+$22	+216%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Japan?	Jun 14	$4	−$3	-97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan?	Jun 14	$15	−$15	-97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan?	Jun 14	$15	−$15	-98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan?	Jun 14	$10	−$10	-98%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao?	Jun 14	$20	−$20	-98%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Curaçao?	Jun 14	$2	−$2	-97%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 1 Switzerland?	Jun 13	$10	+$133	+1290%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 0 Switzerland?	Jun 13	$10	−$10	-97%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	67¢	$41	1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	BUY Yes	21¢	$11	1h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire?	BUY Yes	8¢	$4	1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Sweden?	BUY Yes	4¢	$1	1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Sweden?	BUY Yes	4¢	$1	1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Sweden?	BUY Yes	7¢	$3	1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Sweden?	BUY Yes	7¢	$4	1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Sweden?	BUY Yes	5¢	$2	1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	57¢	$29	1h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo?	BUY Yes	9¢	$4	3d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo?	BUY Yes	17¢	$9	3d
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 1 DR Congo?	BUY Yes	3¢	$2	3d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?	BUY Yes	1¢	$0	3d
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	BUY Yes	45¢	$18	5d
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 2 Cabo Verde?	BUY Yes	1¢	$3	5d
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde?	BUY Yes	7¢	$10	5d
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde?	BUY Yes	17¢	$7	5d
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde?	BUY Yes	15¢	$6	5d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	BUY Yes	6¢	$4	5d
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Japan?	BUY Yes	8¢	$5	5d
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Japan?	BUY Yes	23¢	$10	5d
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Japan?	BUY Yes	4¢	$4	6d
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan?	BUY Yes	12¢	$15	6d
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan?	BUY Yes	13¢	$15	6d
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan?	BUY Yes	16¢	$10	6d
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao?	BUY Yes	17¢	$20	6d
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Curaçao?	BUY Yes	2¢	$2	6d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	31¢	$10	6d
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 1 Switzerland?	BUY Yes	7¢	$10	7d
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 0 Switzerland?	BUY Yes	3¢	$10	7d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $104.30 · official $104.32 (match) · 33 history records