Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:21:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x9296…7de2 other 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 88d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$25 (-4%) realized −$16 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate26%10W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit37%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$32
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 78% −$38
crypto 14% −$29
sports 7% +$30
world 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-33.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -30.3% -36.9% 21% 21% -1.2%
≤30d 29 -26.8% -33.7% 21% 21% -9.6%
≤90d 38 -26.0% -33.1% 26% 26% -14.4%
all 38 -26.0% -33.1% 26% 26% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.1% 26% -14.4%
10% -39.5% 24% -22.6%
15% -45.3% 24% -30.1%
20% -50.7% 16% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -30% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$8 · ×2.44 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized−$16
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses10 / 28
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)38 / 43
History coverage88d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit37%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-12%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-78%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 +$27 +262%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$1 -5%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $194 +$93 +48%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $15 −$3 -22%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $29 −$29 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $14 $0 -1%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$5 +93%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 +$13 +413%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $8 −$8 -97%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 +$27 +262%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $15 +$26 +172%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $29 −$28 -97%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Mar 26 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Mar 26 $57 −$25 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Mar 26 $5 +$2 +39%
Solana Up or Down - March 25, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Mar 25 $4 +$1 +36%
Solana Up or Down - March 25, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Mar 25 $6 −$6 -99%
Solana Up or Down - March 25, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Mar 25 $2 −$1 -28%
Solana Up or Down - March 25, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Mar 25 $5 +$5 +104%
Solana Up or Down - March 25, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Mar 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Mar 25 $5 +$1 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $26 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 24¢ $10 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 3d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 52¢ $19 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $20 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 11¢ $6 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $194 5d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $12 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $29 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 63¢ $14 5d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $15 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $14 6d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 6d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 6d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 6d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 6d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 7d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 19¢ $7 7d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 7d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 7d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 7d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 7d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 7d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 7d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.59 · official $55.59 (match) · 79 history records