Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:40:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
92 0x9297…c11f crypto 260 markets active 2h ago coverage 40d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$633 (+6%) realized +$591 · open +$42
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate54%139W / 119L
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day28.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$119now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$37
7 days−$37
14 days−$37
30 days+$196
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$464
sports 1% +$5
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)+0.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -95.0% -95.5% 0% 0% -95.5%
≤30d 67 +0.7% -8.9% 57% 52% -4.2%
≤90d 258 +11.4% +0.8% 54% 51% -6.1%
all 258 +11.4% +0.8% 54% 51% -6.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +0.8% 51% -6.1%
10% ← realistic here -8.8% 45% -15.1%
15% -17.7% 33% -23.3%
20% -25.7% 16% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late +15% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$19 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$119
Realized+$591
Unrealized+$42
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses139 / 119
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)258 / 260
History coverage40d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day28.1
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 258 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Canada 53¢ 96¢ $53 $96 +$42 (+80%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $24 $24 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 65 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $39 −$37 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET May 31 $48 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET May 31 $129 +$21 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET May 31 $81 +$19 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 31 $77 −$27 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET May 31 $63 −$3 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET May 31 $43 +$7 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET May 31 $81 +$19 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET May 31 $133 −$33 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET May 31 $130 +$90 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET May 31 $63 −$10 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET May 31 $15 +$5 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET May 31 $15 +$5 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET May 31 $207 −$37 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 31 $55 +$15 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 31 $48 +$22 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 31 $94 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET May 31 $67 +$33 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 31 $107 +$43 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET May 31 $61 −$11 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET May 31 $38 +$12 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET May 31 $69 +$31 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET May 31 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET May 31 $66 −$16 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET May 27 $73 +$27 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET May 27 $89 +$111 +125%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 27 $70 −$70 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET May 27 $58 −$8 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET May 27 $31 +$9 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET May 27 $38 −$36 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET May 27 $71 +$29 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET May 27 $84 +$16 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET May 27 $126 −$30 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET May 27 $88 +$32 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET May 27 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET May 27 $214 −$64 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET May 24 $52 −$32 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET May 24 $15 +$5 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET May 24 $33 −$32 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET May 24 $16 +$4 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET May 24 $81 −$11 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET May 24 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET May 24 $50 +$20 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET May 24 $1 $0 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET May 23 $45 +$15 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET May 23 $42 +$18 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET May 23 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET May 23 $14 +$6 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET May 23 $4 +$16 +425%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET May 23 $93 −$23 -25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 53¢ $54 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 4¢ $2 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 78¢ $39 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $24 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $8 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $23 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $16 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $4 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $0 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $3 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $54 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $9 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $7 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $42 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $47 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $30 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $0 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $0 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $0 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $25 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $119.00 · official $118.00 (match) · 1342 history records