Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:32:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x929a…5ab4 other 494 markets active 0h ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$170 (-1%) realized −$162 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate46%207W / 247L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day24.3pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$510now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$149
7 days−$217
14 days−$414
30 days−$413
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% −$445
politics 26% +$66
other 18% −$70
sports 3% −$3
finance 1% −$15
tech 1% +$5
crypto 0% −$6
culture 0% $0
economics 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 81 +16.6% +5.5% 51% 19% -11.8%
≤30d 145 +6.2% -4.0% 46% 19% -11.7%
≤90d 454 -4.8% -13.9% 46% 28% -11.3%
all 454 -4.8% -13.9% 46% 28% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.9% 28% -11.3%
10% ← realistic here -22.1% 21% -19.8%
15% -29.6% 14% -27.6%
20% -36.5% 9% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -10% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$10 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$510
Realized−$162
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses207 / 247
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions73
Markets (closed)454 / 494
History coverage78d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day24.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 73 History 454 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Burt Jones win the Georgia Republican Governor Primary Runoff by less than 5%? No 97¢ 96¢ $88 $87 −$2 (-2%)
Will Rick Jackson win the Georgia Republican Governor Primary Runoff by 10–15%? No 97¢ 98¢ $73 $73 +$0 (+1%)
Will Burt Jones win the Georgia Republican Governor Primary Runoff by 5–10%? No 97¢ 95¢ $72 $70 −$2 (-3%)
Will Rick Jackson win the Georgia Republican Governor Primary Runoff by more than 15%? No 97¢ 98¢ $58 $59 +$1 (+1%)
Will Masoud Pezeshkian attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? No 88¢ 90¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+3%)
Will Burt Jones win the Georgia Republican Governor Primary Runoff by 10–15%? No 98¢ 96¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Will Kai Havertz score 6+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 30¢ $20 $28 +$8 (+40%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? Yes 86¢ 83¢ $26 $25 −$1 (-3%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 5+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 16¢ $35 $25 −$10 (-29%)
Will Lionel Messi score 5+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 72¢ $5 $18 +$13 (+262%)
Will Burt Jones win the Georgia Republican Governor Primary Runoff by more than 15%? No 98¢ 96¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Curaçao concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 17¢ 26¢ $6 $9 +$3 (+51%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 18, 2026? No 11¢ 9¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-20%)
Will Erling Haaland score 6+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 47¢ 16¢ $10 $3 −$6 (-67%)
Will Spencer Pratt concede by June 15? Yes 49¢ 46¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Will Germany score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 68¢ 70¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-18%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 92¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-24%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Yes 93¢ 92¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-30%)
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? No 30¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-13%)
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-38%)
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? No 96¢ 69¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $22 +$2 +9%
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on June 17? Jun 17 $32 −$28 -87%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $53 +$21 +41%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 17 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Mike Collins win the Georgia Republican Senate Primary runoff ele Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Mike Collins win the Georgia Republican Senate Primary runoff ele Jun 17 $5 −$5 -95%
Will N’Kiyla “Jasmine” Thomas be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Jun 17 $50 −$6 -12%
Will Mitchell Jacob be the Democratic nominee for OK-04? Jun 17 $100 +$4 +4%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $10 $0 -1%
Will Mark Tedford be the Republican nominee for OK-01? Jun 17 $40 −$2 -6%
Will Rick Jackson win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary ele Jun 17 $164 +$15 +9%
Will Burt Jones win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary elect Jun 17 $171 +$17 +10%
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026? Jun 17 $51 −$8 -16%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 17 $50 +$3 +7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 17 $312 +$9 +3%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $85 +$1 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $762 −$22 -3%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $206 +$11 +5%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 17, 2026? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -96%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 16 $96 $0 +0%
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 15? Jun 16 $1 $0 +3%
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa Jun 16 $1 $0 +2%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $421 −$161 -38%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $194 −$9 -5%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $168 +$25 +15%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? Jun 15 $193 −$8 -4%
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 15 $509 −$205 -40%
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $51 −$5 -10%
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? Jun 15 $217 +$29 +14%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 14 $7 −$1 -17%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $187 −$19 -10%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 14 $141 +$2 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $30 +$10 +34%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 14 $34 +$11 +33%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? Jun 14 $60 +$61 +103%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 14 $68 +$25 +37%
Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in June 2026? Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $90 −$11 -12%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $133 +$11 +8%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? Jun 14 $56 −$55 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 14 $61 +$29 +47%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 14 $642 +$36 +6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 14 $783 +$61 +8%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $106 −$2 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $4 +$2 +48%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $6 +$3 +45%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$4 +22%
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 13 $230 +$4 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 13 $172 −$3 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 62¢ $24 4m
Will Burt Jones win the Georgia Republican Governor Primary Runoff by BUY No 99¢ $2 27m
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on June 17? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 42m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL Yes 9¢ $0 58m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? BUY Yes 86¢ $26 59m
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 5+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 22¢ $36 1h
Will Kai Havertz score 6+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 1h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 87¢ $19 1h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 72¢ $10 1h
Will Masoud Pezeshkian attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY No 88¢ $25 1h
Will Masoud Pezeshkian attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY No 88¢ $25 1h
Will Masoud Pezeshkian sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL No 88¢ $11 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 1h
Will Mike Collins win the Georgia Republican Senate Primary runoff ele SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Mike Collins win the Georgia Republican Senate Primary runoff ele SELL No 2¢ $0 1h
Will Burt Jones win the Georgia Republican Governor Primary Runoff by BUY No 98¢ $20 2h
Will Rick Jackson win the Georgia Republican Governor Primary Runoff b BUY No 98¢ $20 2h
Will Burt Jones win the Georgia Republican Governor Primary Runoff by BUY No 98¢ $20 2h
Will Burt Jones win the Georgia Republican Governor Primary Runoff by BUY No 98¢ $20 2h
Will N’Kiyla “Jasmine” Thomas be the Democratic nominee for Senate in SELL Yes 85¢ $44 2h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL Yes 81¢ $6 4h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL Yes 81¢ $5 4h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL Yes 55¢ $8 9h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL Yes 30¢ $2 9h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL Yes 30¢ $3 9h
Will Rick Jackson win the Georgia Republican Governor Primary Runoff b BUY No 98¢ $3 10h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 10h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 10h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $10 10h
Will Burt Jones win the Georgia Republican Governor Primary Runoff by BUY No 98¢ $2 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $510.40 · official $510.22 (match) · 2045 history records