Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T14:59:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x929a…254b crypto 82 markets active 1h ago coverage 76d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$100 (-5%) realized −$100 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate73%59W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days+$11
14 days+$11
30 days−$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$128
other 1% $0
politics 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +13.1% +2.3% 85% 46% +0.6%
≤30d 35 -2.5% -11.8% 69% 43% -16.3%
≤90d 81 -1.7% -11.0% 73% 47% -15.8%
all 81 -1.7% -11.0% 73% 47% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 47% -15.8%
10% -19.6% 15% -23.9%
15% -27.3% 7% -31.2%
20% -34.5% 4% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$16 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$100
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses59 / 22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)81 / 82
History coverage76d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 81 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 58¢ 56¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 29 $5 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 29 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 29 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 29 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 29 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 29 $5 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 29 $11 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 29 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 29 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 29 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 29 $5 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 29 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 29 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 04 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 04 $5 −$4 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 04 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 04 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 04 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 04 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 04 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 04 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 04 $10 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 02 $26 −$13 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 02 $76 −$33 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 02 $26 +$4 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 02 $26 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 02 $51 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 02 $51 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 02 $26 +$6 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 02 $25 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 02 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 02 $25 +$5 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 02 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 02 $25 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 02 $5 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET May 23 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET May 22 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET May 22 $25 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 22 $30 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 22 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET May 22 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET May 22 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET May 22 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET May 22 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET May 22 $31 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET May 22 $25 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 22 $25 +$4 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 22 $31 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET May 22 $25 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET May 22 $10 −$5 -51%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Down 81¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Down 76¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Down 69¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Down 68¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Down 73¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Down 30¢ $6 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Down 64¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $6 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.87 · official $2.87 (match) · 213 history records