Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:41:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
92 0x929d…7ee3 other 106 markets active 0h ago coverage 60d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,223 (+15%) realized +$2,072 · open +$151
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate56%50W / 39L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$144per market
Trades / day17.2pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$809now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$135
7 days−$2
14 days+$561
30 days+$1,414
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% +$910
other 23% +$658
crypto 13% −$119
tech 10% +$345
sports 7% −$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 -11.1% -19.6% 47% 35% -9.6%
≤30d 87 -1.9% -11.3% 55% 43% +1.3%
≤90d 89 -1.6% -11.0% 56% 44% +1.3%
all 89 -1.6% -11.0% 56% 44% +1.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 44% +1.3%
10% -19.5% 34% -8.4%
15% -27.3% 27% -17.3%
20% -34.4% 19% -25.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +10% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$58 vs −$33 · ×1.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.24 per $1 lost it wins $2.24
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$809
Realized+$2,072
Unrealized+$151
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses50 / 39
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions17
Markets (closed)89 / 106
History coverage60d
Avg bet$144
Trades / day17.2
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 89 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14? Yes 54¢ 94¢ $245 $424 +$180 (+73%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Up 73¢ 100¢ $145 $198 +$53 (+37%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 57¢ 48¢ $57 $48 −$9 (-17%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $25 $31 +$6 (+25%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $27 $24 −$3 (-12%)
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $80 $20 −$60 (-75%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $18 $14 −$4 (-21%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $17 $12 −$5 (-31%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $9 $12 +$3 (+35%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Down 45¢ 55¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+20%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $6 $6 +$1 (+13%)
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-25%)
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14? No 46¢ 95¢ $2 $3 +$2 (+107%)
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21? Yes 12¢ 3¢ $12 $3 −$9 (-78%)
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will Sadio Mane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$2 (-70%)
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30? Yes 7¢ 12¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+71%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 20 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 20 $63 −$62 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$15 +280%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 20 $143 −$20 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 20 $77 +$17 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 20 $171 −$19 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 20 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 20 $50 −$3 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 20 $61 −$11 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 20 $56 +$31 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 20 $71 +$5 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 20 $82 +$8 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 20 $31 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 20 $87 +$25 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 20 $41 −$15 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 20 $51 +$11 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 20 $31 +$24 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 20 $86 +$15 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 20 $51 +$21 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 20 $113 −$42 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 20 $75 +$5 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 20 $86 −$6 -7%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Czechia win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $59 −$59 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $30 +$20 +67%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 19 $34 −$4 -12%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $113 −$49 -44%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $40 +$4 +11%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $18 +$22 +119%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $19 −$11 -60%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $53 −$28 -53%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $136 +$47 +34%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $13 +$3 +20%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 16 $141 −$1 -0%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $125 −$102 -81%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $24 +$11 +48%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $20 +$1 +4%
Will Lewis Hamilton finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gran Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Charles Leclerc finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gra Jun 15 $22 −$3 -13%
Will George Russell finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gran Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $179 −$137 -77%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $166 +$9 +5%
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? Jun 14 $39 +$19 +49%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $84 +$46 +56%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 14 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Jun 13 $879 +$330 +38%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $14 −$14 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $25 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $25 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $25 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $25 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $26 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $5 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $2 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $25 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $26 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $25 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $25 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $25 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $25 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $5 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 50m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $809.33 · official $809.33 (match) · 1124 history records