Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T11:26:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

92
0x92a0…6562
world · 52 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$6 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$10 · open +$9
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$499
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses30 / 12
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions10
Markets (closed)42 / 52
History coverage162d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%
Chart Positions 10 History 42 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$44
7 days+$44
14 days+$44
30 days+$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Ilia Topuria 81¢ 80¢ $118 $116 −$2 (-2%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 76¢ 77¢ $85 $87 +$2 (+2%)
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Alex Pereira 50¢ 50¢ $60 $61 +$1 (+1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Card) Sean OMalley 79¢ 78¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Justin Gaethje 20¢ 20¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+2%)
Fight to Go the Distance? No 85¢ 87¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+2%)
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 19¢ 24¢ $20 $25 +$5 (+26%)
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Yes 77¢ 74¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-3%)
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card) Michael Chandler 18¢ 20¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+8%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Yes 38¢ 38¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Up 19¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Up 33¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31? No 33¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Melania say "Career" during AI talk on Friday? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$5 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 14 $36 +$26 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $152 +$83 +55%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 31? May 09 $40 −$40 -100%
US government shutdown Saturday? May 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 30 $20 +$5 +25%
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? Jan 30 $20 $0 +2%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 30 $20 +$3 +14%
Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? Jan 30 $18 $0 +0%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 30? Jan 30 $10 $0 +5%
Will the US not strike Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 30 $20 +$1 +7%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Janua Jan 30 $40 +$1 +3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Jan 30 $44 $0 +0%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 30 $38 +$4 +12%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 30 $15 $0 +1%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 26, 2026 (ET)? Jan 30 $20 $0 +2%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on January 28? Jan 30 $30 +$19 +63%
Israel strikes Iran by January 25, 2026? Jan 28 $15 $0 +1%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 25, 2026 (ET)? Jan 28 $55 +$1 +2%
US strikes Iran by January 27, 2026? Jan 28 $690 +$5 +1%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 24, 2026 (ET)? Jan 27 $10 $0 +2%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 26? Jan 27 $16 $0 +1%
US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026? Jan 27 $62 +$2 +3%
US strikes Iran by January 25, 2026? Jan 26 $25 $0 +2%
Will Rangers FC win on 2026-01-25? Jan 26 $23 +$7 +28%
U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31? Jan 25 $10 −$10 -100%
UFC 324: Yadong vs. O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Card) Jan 25 $10 +$5 +52%
UFC 324: Figueiredo vs. Nurmagomedov (Bantamweight, Prelims) Jan 25 $20 +$2 +9%
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 24? Jan 25 $20 +$4 +19%
US strikes Iran by January 24, 2026? Jan 25 $49 +$2 +4%
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett (Lightweight, Main Card) Jan 25 $20 +$42 +212%
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? Jan 24 $45 +$4 +9%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Jan 20 $40 −$37 -92%
Will Melania say "Career" during AI talk on Friday? Jan 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap Jan 18 $40 −$37 -92%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 53% +$30
sports 16% +$52
other 16% −$2
tech 5% −$55
crypto 4% +$12
politics 3% −$56
finance 2% +$19
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 3h
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 19¢ $20 3h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $14 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $16 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $85 4h
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 77¢ $25 4h
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY No 85¢ $25 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $50 4h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 81¢ $119 15h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 20¢ $26 16h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 18¢ $20 16h
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Sean OMalley 79¢ $50 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -21.8% -29.2% 40% 20% +4.1%
≤30d 10 -21.8% -29.2% 40% 20% +4.1%
≤90d 12 -34.8% -41.0% 33% 17% -13.5%
all 42 -7.7% -16.5% 71% 24% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.5% 24% -10.0%
10% -24.5% 17% -18.6%
15% -31.8% 12% -26.5%
20% -38.5% 12% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $499.36 · official $499.37 (match) · 116 history records