Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T16:07:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x92a0…5fdc other 404 markets active 3h ago coverage 218d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$910 (+2%) realized +$997 · open −$87
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate53%210W / 189L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown59%max
Avg bet$95per market
Trades / day9.0pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit37%portable
Net worth$396now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$172
14 days+$72
30 days−$259
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 81% +$1,031
world 11% −$182
crypto 4% −$132
sports 3% +$18
politics 1% −$38
tech 0% −$4
culture 0% +$1
economics 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +8.8% -1.5% 75% 75% +35.4%
≤30d 48 -8.3% -17.1% 48% 42% -14.7%
≤90d 89 -10.3% -18.9% 52% 34% -12.0%
all 399 -5.6% -14.6% 53% 36% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.6% 36% -7.7%
10% -22.8% 23% -16.5%
15% -30.3% 16% -24.6%
20% -37.1% 13% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +2% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$52 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

218d coverage
Net worth$396
Realized+$997
Unrealized−$87
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses210 / 189
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions4
Markets (closed)399 / 404
History coverage218d
Avg bet$95
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown59%
Kalshi-fit37%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 399 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 64¢ 62¢ $192 $184 −$8 (-4%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 50¢ 77¢ $50 $77 +$27 (+54%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 50¢ 63¢ $50 $63 +$13 (+25%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 50¢ 37¢ $50 $37 −$13 (-25%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 50¢ 23¢ $50 $23 −$27 (-54%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 17¢ 4¢ $51 $11 −$40 (-78%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9AM ET Jun 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 21 $50 +$8 +17%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 20 $141 +$125 +88%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 16 $150 +$45 +30%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $79 −$37 -46%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $390 −$149 -38%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $163 +$17 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $69 +$6 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $249 +$27 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $66 −$66 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 09 $111 −$111 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $129 +$71 +56%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $159 +$141 +89%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 06 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? Jun 06 $21 +$9 +42%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 06 $74 +$126 +169%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 05 $11 +$1 +13%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 05 $162 +$28 +17%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 04 $265 +$17 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 04 $81 −$70 -87%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 04 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 04 $36 +$110 +304%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 03 $63 −$63 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 03 $68 −$68 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $20 +$20 +99%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 02 $129 −$129 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? Jun 02 $48 −$19 -39%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? Jun 02 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 02 $38 −$36 -93%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 02 $117 −$117 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? Jun 01 $110 +$90 +81%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? May 29 $11 +$6 +53%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $65 +$131 +201%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 27 $402 −$4 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 27 $50 +$19 +38%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 26 $65 −$19 -29%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 26 $25 +$19 +74%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 26 $72 −$51 -71%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $39 −$27 -69%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 25 $130 +$6 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 25 $79 −$79 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 25 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 25 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 25 $164 −$164 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 25 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 25 $92 +$149 +161%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 25 $50 +$50 +100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? May 23 $340 +$10 +3%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through December 31? May 23 $1,500 −$36 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $6 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY 63¢ $10 2h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 64¢ $196 2h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $53 2h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 60¢ $59 21h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $16 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL Yes 89¢ $266 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $9 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 3d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $4 3d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $4 3d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 3d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 3d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 3d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $18 5d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $11 5d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $9 5d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $9 5d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $47 5d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $47 5d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 65¢ $185 6d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 65¢ $5 6d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 65¢ $5 6d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $150 6d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 42¢ $20 7d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 45¢ $22 7d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 78¢ $79 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 8¢ $58 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $395.89 · official $405.90 · 2298 history records