Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T14:32:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
92 0x92a3…7054 crypto 69 markets active 2h ago coverage 111d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$22 (+0%) realized +$17 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%67W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$141per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$188now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$16
other 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 13 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 55 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 67 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.0%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

111d coverage
Net worth$188
Realized+$17
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses67 / 0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)67 / 69
History coverage111d
Avg bet$141
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 26? No 100¢ 100¢ $162 $162 +$0 (+0%)
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? Yes 63¢ 80¢ $20 $25 +$5 (+26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $162 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $162 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $161 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $161 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $161 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $161 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $2 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $161 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $161 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $160 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $160 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $160 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $160 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 25? May 25 $160 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 24? May 24 $159 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 23? May 23 $159 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 20? May 20 $159 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 19? May 19 $159 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 18? May 18 $159 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 15? May 15 $159 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 14? May 14 $158 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 12? May 12 $158 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 11? May 11 $158 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 10? May 10 $157 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 9? May 09 $157 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 8? May 08 $157 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 7? May 07 $157 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 6? May 06 $157 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 6? May 06 $2 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 5? May 05 $156 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 4? May 04 $156 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 4? May 04 $2 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 30? Apr 30 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 30? Apr 30 $151 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 27? Apr 28 $157 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 26? Apr 27 $156 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 23? Apr 24 $156 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 22? Apr 23 $156 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 21? Apr 22 $156 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 20? Apr 21 $156 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 19? Apr 20 $156 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 18? Apr 19 $155 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 17? Apr 18 $155 $0 +0%
Sentio FDV above $20M one day after launch? Apr 17 $5 $0 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 16? Apr 17 $149 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 15? Apr 16 $149 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 14? Apr 15 $148 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 13? Apr 14 $147 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 10? Apr 11 $147 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 9? Apr 10 $146 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $162 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $162 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $162 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $161 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $161 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $161 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $161 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 8? BUY Yes 99¢ $2 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $161 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $161 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $160 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $160 22d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $160 23d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? BUY Yes 100¢ $160 24d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 25? BUY No 100¢ $160 32d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 24? BUY No 100¢ $159 33d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $159 34d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 20? BUY No 100¢ $159 37d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 19? BUY No 100¢ $159 38d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 18? BUY No 100¢ $159 39d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 15? BUY No 100¢ $159 42d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 14? BUY No 100¢ $158 43d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 12? BUY No 100¢ $158 45d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $158 46d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $157 47d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 9? BUY No 100¢ $157 48d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 8? BUY No 100¢ $157 49d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 7? BUY No 100¢ $157 50d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 6? BUY No 100¢ $2 51d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 6? BUY Yes 100¢ $157 51d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $187.71 · official $187.71 (match) · 136 history records