Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T06:40:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

92
0x92a6…ceba
other · 49 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$3 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$3 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses23 / 26
Open positions0
Markets (closed)49 / 49
History coverage457d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit59%
Chart Positions 0 History 49 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $51 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 11 $46 −$1 -1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $47 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 18 $83 −$3 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 16 $83 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Dec 15 $2 $0 +8%
Will Pedri win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Dec 15 $1 $0 -36%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Dec 15 $2 $0 -8%
Will Gonzalo Winter win the Chilean presidential election? Jun 15 $19 $0 -0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 14 $19 $0 +0%
Will Brad Lander win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City Jun 13 $19 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with France before July? Jun 13 $19 $0 -2%
Will federal spending decrease by less than $250b between Q4 2024 and Jun 12 $20 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Jun 12 $20 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 150–174 times June 6–13? Jun 12 $19 +$1 +3%
Will Jalen Williams Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 11 $19 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet less than 150 times June 6–13? Jun 11 $18 +$1 +4%
Will Elon apologize to Trump by Monday? Jun 11 $18 $0 +2%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 200,000 or more betwe Jun 09 $18 $0 +0%
Will José Carlos Sánchez Verazaín win the 2025 Bolivia presidential el Jun 09 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 National League Championship? Jun 08 $18 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Jun 07 $17 $0 +1%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Jun 04 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 04 $9 $0 -0%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Jun 03 $2 $0 +8%
Will another person win the South Korean election? Jun 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by $250-500b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 Jun 02 $1 $0 +3%
Will Lee Jae-myung win by between 5-8%? Jun 01 $17 $0 -2%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on May 31? Jun 01 $17 $0 +1%
Will 'Lilo & Stitch' gross between $160-170m opening weekend? May 30 $2 $0 +3%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% or more in April? May 10 $16 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30? May 10 $16 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 65-66°F on May 8? May 10 $17 $0 +2%
Will Peter Turkson be the next pope? May 08 $17 $0 +0%
Will Pedro Nuno Santos be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after th May 07 $16 $0 -1%
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? May 06 $13 +$4 +27%
Arsenal wins the Premier League? Apr 28 $14 $0 +4%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Mar 31 $2 $0 +0%
Kanye's music pulled from Spotify before April? Mar 29 $16 $0 +1%
Will Trump's approval rating be less than 46.0% on March 28? Mar 28 $16 $0 +0%
Will Frankfurt win the UEFA Europa League? Mar 27 $16 $0 -0%
Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? Mar 26 $16 $0 +1%
Will 'Snow White' gross between 34-39m on opening weekend? Mar 25 $14 $0 +1%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2025 World Series? Mar 22 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 45°F or below on March 21? Mar 22 $16 $0 +2%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the Western Conference? Mar 19 $14 $0 -0%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $85000 and $87000 on Mar 14? Mar 15 $14 +$1 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 44% −$2
politics 17% +$4
world 16% $0
sports 6% $0
finance 5% $0
crypto 4% +$1
tech 4% $0
weather 3% $0
culture 2% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $33 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $33 3h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $17 8h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $17 9h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $5 10h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 15h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $46 17h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $46 18h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $23 3d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $23 3d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 83¢ $46 3d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $47 3d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $47 4d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $10 88d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $69 88d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $83 88d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $83 90d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $83 90d
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? BUY No 93¢ $2 350d
Will Gonzalo Winter win the Chilean presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $19 364d
Will Gonzalo Winter win the Chilean presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $19 364d
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? SELL No 99¢ $19 364d
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? BUY No 99¢ $19 365d
Will Brad Lander win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City SELL No 99¢ $19 365d
Will Brad Lander win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City BUY No 99¢ $19 366d
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with France before July? SELL No 95¢ $19 366d
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with France before July? BUY No 96¢ $19 366d
Will federal spending decrease by less than $250b between Q4 2024 and SELL Yes 98¢ $20 366d
Will federal spending decrease by less than $250b between Q4 2024 and BUY Yes 98¢ $20 366d
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $20 366d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 25% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 25% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 5 -1.0% -10.4% 20% 0% -10.8%
all 49 +0.4% -9.1% 47% 2% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 2% -9.2%
10% -17.8% 2% -17.9%
15% -25.8% 0% -25.8%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 132 history records