Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:52:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x92a6…2678 crypto 389 markets active 1h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$58 (+0%) realized +$58 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate54%211W / 178L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day6.7pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$131
7 days−$99
14 days−$99
30 days−$99
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$318
other 2% −$14
sports 1% −$85
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -30.8% -37.3% 40% 40% -20.4%
≤30d 15 -30.8% -37.3% 40% 40% -20.4%
≤90d 15 -30.8% -37.3% 40% 40% -20.4%
all 389 +1.8% -7.9% 54% 51% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 51% -11.4%
10% -16.7% 46% -19.9%
15% -24.7% 41% -27.6%
20% -32.1% 30% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$41 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$58
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses211 / 178
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)389 / 389
History coverage127d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day6.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 389 Trades
no open positions (122 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $50 −$17 -34%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $32 +$15 +48%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $89 +$42 +48%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $127 −$127 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -97%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 $0 -8%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $126 −$125 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 +$42 +41%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $50 +$20 +40%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $96 +$52 +54%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $96 +$48 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Mar 08 $11 −$5 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Mar 08 $15 −$5 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Mar 08 $5 +$6 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Mar 08 $2 +$3 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Mar 08 $5 −$3 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Mar 08 $3 +$2 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Mar 08 $4 −$1 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Mar 08 $17 −$9 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Mar 08 $39 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Mar 08 $51 −$16 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Mar 08 $118 −$40 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Mar 08 $222 −$16 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Mar 08 $131 +$20 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Mar 08 $101 +$19 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Mar 08 $10 −$4 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Mar 08 $25 +$6 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Mar 08 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Mar 08 $60 −$20 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Mar 08 $40 −$7 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Mar 08 $22 +$31 +141%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Mar 08 $143 −$43 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Mar 08 $45 −$7 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Mar 08 $25 +$4 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Mar 08 $20 +$20 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 1:55AM-3:00AM ET Mar 08 $36 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Mar 08 $73 −$19 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Mar 08 $42 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Mar 08 $50 −$17 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Mar 08 $80 −$14 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Mar 08 $27 +$14 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Mar 08 $30 −$16 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Mar 07 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Mar 07 $21 +$14 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Mar 07 $50 +$26 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Mar 07 $50 −$16 -32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 47¢ $34 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 69¢ $50 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Under 21¢ $10 12h
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 40¢ $10 12h
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 12h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $15 24h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $47 26h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $32 27h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $89 44h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 2d
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 23¢ $5 2d
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 2d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $127 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $126 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $143 2d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $70 2d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 71¢ $50 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 3d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $148 3d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 64¢ $96 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $96 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Down 48¢ $6 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $4 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Up 18¢ $4 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $11 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $11 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 107d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 865 history records