Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:52:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x92a8…dc3d crypto 22 markets active 22h ago coverage 94d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$345 (-25%) realized −$182 · open −$163
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate32%6W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$118
7 days+$118
14 days+$118
30 days+$118
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% −$131
crypto 30% −$76
world 14% −$8
culture 1% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-43.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +61.8% +46.4% 50% 50% +44.6%
≤30d 2 +61.8% +46.4% 50% 50% +44.6%
≤90d 7 -31.2% -37.7% 29% 29% -12.8%
all 19 -37.3% -43.3% 32% 21% -16.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -43.3% 21% -16.4%
10% -48.7% 21% -24.4%
15% -53.7% 11% -31.7%
20% -58.2% 11% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 91% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -47% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$18 · ×1.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$182
Unrealized−$163
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses6 / 13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)19 / 22
History coverage94d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netanyahu out by June 30? Yes 16¢ 1¢ $171 $8 −$163 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $96 +$123 +129%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 −$6 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Mar 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Mar 20 $15 −$5 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Mar 20 $13 +$4 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Mar 20 $25 −$25 -100%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 20 $120 −$86 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Mar 19 $2 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Mar 19 $141 +$6 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Mar 19 $50 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Mar 19 $55 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Mar 19 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Mar 19 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Mar 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Mar 19 $20 +$34 +172%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? Mar 19 $186 −$3 -2%
Will "Frankenstein" win exactly 1 award at the Oscars? Mar 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will "Frankenstein" win no awards at the Oscars? Mar 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 56¢ $219 22h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY 43¢ $96 36h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 59¢ $96 36h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY 47¢ $45 36h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $5 89d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $5 89d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $10 89d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $15 89d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 89d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $10 89d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 89d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 89d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 89d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 89d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 89d
Netanyahu out by March 31? SELL Yes 2¢ $34 89d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $17 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $10 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $1 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Down 89¢ $146 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $100 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $10 90d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.16 · official $8.16 (match) · 78 history records