Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:43:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x92ae…0376 economics 4 markets active 1d ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care economics specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$468 (-34%) realized −$3 · open −$465
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -100% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -100% what you keep after slip
Net edge-100%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$349per market
Trades / day13.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$755now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
economics 100% −$580
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-100.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -100.0% 0% -100.0%
10% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
15% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
20% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -100% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
5.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
— vs −$115 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$755
Realized−$3
Unrealized−$465
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1 / 4
History coverage2d
Avg bet$349
Trades / day13.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? No 0¢ 0¢ $1,090 $650 −$440 (-40%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? No 7¢ 8¢ $92 $97 +$4 (+5%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $37 $8 −$29 (-78%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 Jun 16 $115 −$115 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY No 6¢ $34 26h
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 BUY Yes 0¢ $10 36h
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 BUY Yes 0¢ $26 36h
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 BUY Yes 0¢ $3 36h
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 BUY Yes 0¢ $16 38h
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 BUY Yes 0¢ $2 38h
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 BUY Yes 0¢ $0 38h
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 BUY Yes 0¢ $0 38h
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 BUY Yes 0¢ $1 38h
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 BUY Yes 0¢ $0 38h
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 BUY Yes 0¢ $1 38h
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 BUY Yes 0¢ $2 38h
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 BUY Yes 0¢ $1 38h
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 BUY Yes 0¢ $0 38h
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 BUY Yes 0¢ $3 38h
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 BUY Yes 0¢ $52 38h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No 1¢ $42 42h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No 0¢ $577 43h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY Yes 0¢ $39 2d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No 0¢ $105 2d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No 0¢ $420 2d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY No 8¢ $63 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $754.99 · official $754.99 (match) · 23 history records