Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:29:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x92b7…4bb3 crypto 303 markets active 0h ago coverage 71d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$119 (-3%) realized −$137 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate84%255W / 47L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day5.8pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days+$17
14 days+$17
30 days+$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 56% −$8
sports 40% −$139
other 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +17.0% +5.9% 92% 67% +2.4%
≤30d 12 +17.0% +5.9% 92% 67% +2.4%
≤90d 302 -2.8% -12.0% 84% 38% -12.4%
all 302 -2.8% -12.0% 84% 38% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 38% -12.4%
10% -20.5% 6% -20.8%
15% -28.1% 4% -28.4%
20% -35.2% 3% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
51% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$15 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized−$137
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses255 / 47
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)302 / 303
History coverage71d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 302 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Down 74¢ 100¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+34%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Up 72¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$7 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +22%
Game Handicap: KRX (-1.5) vs DN SOOPers (+1.5) May 04 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifie May 04 $80 −$80 -100%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs DN SOOPers - Game 2 Winner May 04 $40 −$40 -100%
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs HANJIN BRION (+1.5) May 04 $20 −$3 -14%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs REKONIX - Game 2 Winner May 03 $30 $0 +0%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 03 $80 +$56 +70%
Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) May 01 $70 −$70 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner May 01 $40 −$40 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 01 $70 +$43 +61%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner May 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 01 $10 +$9 +86%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winner May 01 $30 +$33 +109%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 01 $10 −$5 -54%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Apr 30 $48 −$36 -75%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs Kiwoom DRX (+1.5) Apr 30 $120 −$120 -100%
Game Handicap: DK (-1.5) vs BNK FEARX (+1.5) Apr 30 $181 +$96 +53%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Apr 30 $30 −$3 -10%
Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs KT Rolster (+1.5) Apr 29 $30 +$65 +216%
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Nongshim Red Force (+1.5) Apr 29 $30 +$33 +109%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Apr 29 $30 +$2 +8%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Apr 29 $60 −$51 -84%
Will Ipswich Town FC win on 2026-04-03? Apr 28 $150 $0 +0%
Madrid Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Hailey Baptiste Apr 28 $250 +$1 +0%
Shymkent 2: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Viktor Durasovic Apr 28 $50 $0 +0%
Ostrava: Zdenek Kolar vs Filip Jianu Apr 28 $50 $0 +0%
Set 1 Winner: Kolar vs Jianu Apr 28 $100 $0 +0%
Huzhou: Polona Hercog vs Xinyu Gao Apr 28 $17 $0 +0%
Mauthausen: Joel Schwaerzler vs Jan Choinski Apr 28 $50 $0 +1%
Set 1 Winner: Travaglia vs Jong Apr 28 $50 $0 +0%
LoL: BNK FearX Youth vs Kiwoom DRX Challengers - Game 2 Winner Apr 28 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Apr 13 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Apr 13 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Apr 13 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Apr 13 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Apr 13 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Apr 13 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Apr 12 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Apr 12 $10 +$1 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $10 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $10 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $10 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $10 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $10 2h
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs HANJIN BRION (+1.5) SELL T1 58¢ $17 41d
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs HANJIN BRION (+1.5) BUY T1 66¢ $20 41d
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifie BUY Kiwoom DRX 57¢ $20 41d
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifie BUY Kiwoom DRX 58¢ $20 41d
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs DN SOOPers - Game 2 Winner BUY Kiwoom DRX 57¢ $20 41d
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs DN SOOPers - Game 2 Winner BUY Kiwoom DRX 60¢ $20 41d
Game Handicap: KRX (-1.5) vs DN SOOPers (+1.5) BUY Kiwoom DRX 40¢ $20 41d
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifie BUY Kiwoom DRX 68¢ $20 42d
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifie BUY Kiwoom DRX 67¢ $20 42d
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs REKONIX - Game 2 Winner BUY REKONIX 100¢ $30 42d
LoL: DN SOOPers vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 SELL BNK FEARX 100¢ $137 42d
LoL: DN SOOPers vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY BNK FEARX 58¢ $20 44d
LoL: DN SOOPers vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY BNK FEARX 58¢ $20 44d
LoL: DN SOOPers vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY BNK FEARX 58¢ $20 44d
LoL: DN SOOPers vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY BNK FEARX 58¢ $20 44d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.50 · official $13.50 (match) · 725 history records