Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:49:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x92bc…0e32 sports 29 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$27 (+8%) realized +$34 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%7W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day9.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$63now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% −$15
other 42% +$35
crypto 4% −$13
world 2% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-27.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -19.5% -27.2% 29% 29% -6.5%
≤30d 24 -19.5% -27.2% 29% 29% -6.5%
≤90d 24 -19.5% -27.2% 29% 29% -6.5%
all 24 -19.5% -27.2% 29% 29% -6.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.2% 29% -6.5%
10% -34.1% 29% -15.4%
15% -40.5% 29% -23.6%
20% -46.3% 29% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -64% → late +25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$7 · ×2.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$63
Realized+$34
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses7 / 17
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions5
Markets (closed)24 / 29
History coverage3d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day9.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 64¢ 62¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Over 44¢ 44¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Croatia 41¢ 24¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-43%)
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 Croatia? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 2 Croatia? Yes 11¢ 6¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-45%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $10 +$6 +57%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $20 +$11 +52%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $15 +$8 +52%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $10 −$1 -6%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: France (-3.5) Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $10 +$15 +146%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $5 +$31 +596%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 22 $20 +$35 +172%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $51 +$31 +62%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 20 $32 −$31 -98%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 3 Curaçao? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $30 1h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $20 1h
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 17h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 17h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Croatia 41¢ $10 17h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 17h
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY England 38¢ $10 17h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 65¢ $20 17h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $10 22h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) SELL Portugal 39¢ $10 22h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 40¢ $10 22h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $15 22h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 35¢ $10 27h
Spread: France (-3.5) BUY France 37¢ $10 27h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 42h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 42h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 40¢ $10 42h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 42h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 42h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 2d
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY Egypt 36¢ $20 2d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 43¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 2d
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Ecuador 41¢ $32 3d
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 3 Curaçao? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 3d
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 3d
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 3d
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.53 · official $63.86 · 39 history records