Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:28:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x92c1…244d crypto 301 markets active 0h ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$195 (-6%) realized −$187 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate44%131W / 167L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day18.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$75
7 days−$72
14 days−$72
30 days−$271
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$213
sports 4% −$24
other 1% −$42
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-19.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 185 -13.2% -21.4% 48% 42% -23.0%
≤30d 298 -11.4% -19.8% 44% 36% -17.1%
≤90d 298 -11.4% -19.8% 44% 36% -17.1%
all 298 -11.4% -19.8% 44% 36% -17.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.8% 36% -17.1%
10% -27.5% 32% -25.1%
15% -34.5% 28% -32.3%
20% -40.9% 23% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$187
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses131 / 167
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)298 / 301
History coverage29d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day18.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 298 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 65¢ 24¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-64%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 66¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 103 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$2 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $9 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$4 +173%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$2 -32%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 -4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 -4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $12 −$12 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$8 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $10 +$12 +116%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $6 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -96%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $6 −$6 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $1 +$1 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 14 $11 +$2 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 4m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 13m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $1 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $2 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $6 4h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $1 4h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 4h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 4h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 23¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Up 47¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Down 52¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 46¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 53¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Down 44¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Up 54¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Down 29¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Up 71¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 30¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 69¢ $2 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.28 · official $1.28 (match) · 754 history records