Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T05:11:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x92c6…8e1b crypto 1296 markets active 2h ago coverage 357d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$416 (-1%) realized −$416 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate96%1239W / 53L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$231now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$3
14 days+$6
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$298
sports 4% −$22
other 2% −$123
world 1% +$4
weather 1% +$1
politics 1% +$18
culture 1% $0
finance 0% +$1
tech 0% −$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 158 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 729 -0.2% -9.7% 96% 0% -10.1%
all 1292 -0.3% -9.8% 96% 1% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 1% -10.1%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.7%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.6%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$28 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

357d coverage
Net worth$231
Realized−$416
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses1239 / 53
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1292 / 1296
History coverage357d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 1292 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 20? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $58 $58 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 20? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $58 $58 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? No 100¢ 100¢ $58 $58 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 20? No 100¢ 100¢ $58 $58 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 19? Jun 20 $55 $0 +0%
Christian Pulisic: 1+ goals Jun 19 $58 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 19? Jun 19 $4 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $19 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $24 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 19? Jun 19 $24 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $24 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 19? Jun 19 $24 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? Jun 19 $55 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? Jun 19 $58 $0 +0%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 19 $58 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 16? Jun 19 $115 $0 +0%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $55 $0 +0%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? Jun 15 $57 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $57 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $55 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $57 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $57 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $55 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $46 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $69 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $57 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $57 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $57 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $57 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 13? Jun 14 $57 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Qatar 3 - 0 Switzerland? Jun 13 $57 $0 +0%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $57 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on June 13? Jun 13 $54 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $57 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $57 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $57 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $57 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's I Jun 13 $54 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? Jun 12 $57 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 300 ( Jun 12 $57 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $57 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $18 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $57 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $57 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $68 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $82 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $57 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $57 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $54 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $57 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $57 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $57 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $57 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $57 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $55 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $58 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $58 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $58 9h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $58 10h
Christian Pulisic: 1+ goals BUY No 100¢ $58 11h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $4 15h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $24 15h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $24 19h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $24 19h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $19 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $24 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $55 3d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $55 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $58 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $58 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $58 4d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $58 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $55 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $57 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $57 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 8-14? BUY No 100¢ $46 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $57 5d
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 8-14? BUY No 100¢ $69 5d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? BUY No 100¢ $57 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 June 8-14? BUY No 100¢ $55 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $57 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $57 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $57 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $57 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $231.10 · official $231.10 (match) · 2887 history records