Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:08:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
92 0x92c7…0e11 other 123 markets active 1d ago coverage 493d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,216 (+6%) realized +$1,233 · open −$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate65%66W / 36L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$156per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$1,098now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$98
7 days−$208
14 days−$17
30 days−$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% +$870
crypto 22% −$40
sports 15% +$400
economics 2% +$6
tech 0% +$2
finance 0% −$12
politics 0% +$19
world 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -23.1% -30.4% 41% 35% -34.9%
≤30d 18 -16.6% -24.5% 44% 39% -11.2%
≤90d 21 -23.6% -30.9% 43% 33% -13.2%
all 102 -5.1% -14.2% 65% 34% -3.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 34% -3.2%
10% -22.4% 28% -12.5%
15% -29.9% 20% -20.9%
20% -36.7% 15% -28.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$45 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.79 per $1 lost it wins $1.79
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

493d coverage
Net worth$1,098
Realized+$1,233
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses66 / 36
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions21
Markets (closed)102 / 123
History coverage493d
Avg bet$156
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 102 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 70¢ 68¢ $130 $127 −$3 (-3%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $100 $108 +$8 (+8%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 64¢ $90 $85 −$5 (-5%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $80 $79 −$1 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Yes 83¢ 80¢ $80 $78 −$2 (-3%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $60 $62 +$2 (+4%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+3%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 50¢ 48¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-3%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 64¢ 60¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-5%)
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $50 $42 −$8 (-16%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 71¢ 72¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 55¢ 55¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes 88¢ 88¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 44¢ 42¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $120 −$120 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$5 +93%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$13 +262%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $60 +$4 +6%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $142 +$79 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +50%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 13 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $56 −$55 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $74 −$73 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$10 +97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $136 +$57 +42%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jun 05 $200 +$190 +95%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $23 −$22 -98%
Will Manchester City FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Apr 19 $27 −$26 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on February 24? Apr 19 $396 +$9 +2%
Will Houston Dynamo win on 2026-02-21? Feb 24 $5 $0 +9%
Montana Grizzlies vs. Weber State Wildcats Feb 24 $5 +$1 +11%
Will Nashville SC win on 2026-02-21? Feb 23 $9 $0 +0%
Rockets vs. Knicks Feb 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Henrique Gouveia e Melo win the 2026 Portugal presidential electi Feb 22 $10 +$1 +14%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-31? Feb 22 $1,415 +$59 +4%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 31 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 16? Jan 31 $10 +$2 +25%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 16? Jan 31 $1,734 +$9 +0%
Wizards vs. 76ers Jan 16 $20 $0 +1%
Bucks vs. Spurs Jan 16 $20 +$2 +12%
Celtics vs. Heat Jan 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Albania vs. England end in a draw? Jan 04 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Jan 02 $12 $0 +2%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-12-27? Jan 02 $83 +$17 +20%
Epstein blackmail evidence released in 2025? Jan 02 $155 +$5 +3%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-12-27? Jan 02 $146 +$54 +37%
Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? Jan 02 $1,581 +$112 +7%
Will Base launch a token in 2025? Jan 01 $200 +$16 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 20 Dec 27 $10 $0 +0%
S&P 500 all time high by December 31? Dec 27 $20 +$1 +3%
Solana Up or Down on December 24? Dec 27 $20 +$1 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on December 24? Dec 27 $200 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on December 24? Dec 27 $1,000 $0 +0%
Crude Oil (CL) Up or Down on December 24? Dec 24 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2025-12-21? Dec 22 $2,098 +$24 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down on December 15? Dec 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Bayern München win on 2025-12-06? Dec 12 $78 +$22 +28%
Rainbow FDV above $500M one day after launch? Dec 05 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 30h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $30 30h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $30 30h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $50 30h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $40 30h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $40 30h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $100 30h
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 50¢ $51 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 55¢ $20 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $20 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 44¢ $10 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $20 3d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $81 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 70¢ $81 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $40 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $15 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $30 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $20 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $20 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,097.75 · official $1,097.76 (match) · 223 history records