Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T07:15:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
92 0x92c9…c500 weather 176 markets active 1h ago coverage 83d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$1,330 (+11%) realized +$1,404 · open −$74
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate53%92W / 83L
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Fees−$78est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$158
14 days+$185
30 days+$649
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 46% +$1,081
sports 45% +$212
world 7% +$27
other 1% −$136
finance 1% −$41
crypto 0% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+3.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -31.3% -37.8% 29% 29% -23.2%
≤30d 58 +37.0% +23.9% 50% 47% +9.3%
≤90d 175 +13.9% +3.1% 53% 41% +0.3%
all 175 +13.9% +3.1% 53% 41% +0.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.1% 41% +0.3%
10% -6.8% 33% -9.3%
15% -15.8% 29% -18.1%
20% -24.0% 23% -26.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +25% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$22 · ×1.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.67 per $1 lost it wins $1.67
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

83d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,404
Unrealized−$74
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses92 / 83
Est. fees paid−$78
Open positions1
Markets (closed)175 / 176
History coverage83d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 175 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on June 19? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $74 $0 −$74 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 41 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 19? Jun 19 $57 +$22 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 18? Jun 18 $186 +$25 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C or higher on June 18? Jun 18 $52 −$50 -96%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $118 −$117 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $79 +$68 +86%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $14 −$14 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $19 −$19 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $80 +$81 +101%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $68 −$67 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $51 −$2 -4%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $16 −$16 -97%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Kiwoom Heroes Jun 14 $88 −$86 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 197.5 Jun 14 $90 −$85 -95%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $61 +$161 +262%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $33 −$16 -48%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 13 $35 −$34 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $31 −$9 -28%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 −$3 -26%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $31 +$26 +83%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 11 $18 +$76 +410%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 11 $20 +$20 +97%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $110 −$110 -100%
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. Hanwha Eagles Jun 10 $25 −$24 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $25 +$48 +194%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $8 −$8 -97%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 10 $26 +$24 +92%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 10 $20 −$20 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $26 +$43 +168%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $24 +$94 +394%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 09 $300 +$13 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 8? Jun 08 $46 +$85 +185%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 8? Jun 08 $58 +$23 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 8? Jun 08 $15 +$49 +335%
KBO: LG Twins vs. NC Dinos Jun 07 $15 −$12 -80%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 7? Jun 07 $26 −$25 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 6? Jun 06 $103 +$32 +32%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 Jun 06 $20 +$11 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 5? Jun 05 $23 +$104 +452%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 5? Jun 05 $203 −$3 -1%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 04 $34 −$33 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C or higher on June 3? Jun 03 $52 −$50 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 2? Jun 02 $24 +$76 +315%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners May 30 $17 −$17 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on May 28? May 28 $38 $0 +1%
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers May 28 $6 −$6 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 39°C on May 27? May 27 $26 +$25 +97%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on May 27? May 27 $29 +$48 +167%
KBO: LG Twins vs. Lotte Giants May 26 $11 −$5 -46%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on May 26? May 26 $24 +$48 +200%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on May 26? May 26 $37 +$38 +103%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 19? SELL Yes 97¢ $79 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 19? BUY Yes 68¢ $57 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on June 19? BUY Yes 15¢ $77 22h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $211 28h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 18? BUY No 87¢ $186 30h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C or higher on June 18? BUY Yes 17¢ $52 30h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 61¢ $118 2d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $147 3d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 16? BUY No 53¢ $79 3d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 19¢ $14 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 25¢ $19 3d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $80 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $68 3d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 27¢ $49 3d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 27¢ $51 4d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $16 4d
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Kiwoom Heroes BUY Hanwha Eagles 13¢ $1 4d
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Kiwoom Heroes BUY Hanwha Eagles 14¢ $2 4d
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Kiwoom Heroes BUY Hanwha Eagles 15¢ $2 4d
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Kiwoom Heroes BUY Hanwha Eagles 14¢ $1 4d
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Kiwoom Heroes BUY Hanwha Eagles 15¢ $2 4d
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Kiwoom Heroes BUY Hanwha Eagles 15¢ $1 4d
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Kiwoom Heroes BUY Hanwha Eagles 15¢ $0 4d
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Kiwoom Heroes BUY Hanwha Eagles 15¢ $2 4d
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Kiwoom Heroes BUY Hanwha Eagles 15¢ $17 4d
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Kiwoom Heroes BUY Hanwha Eagles 15¢ $2 4d
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Kiwoom Heroes BUY Hanwha Eagles 13¢ $1 4d
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Kiwoom Heroes BUY Hanwha Eagles 38¢ $56 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 197.5 SELL Over 29¢ $3 5d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 197.5 BUY Over 22¢ $45 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.49 · official $0.49 (match) · 559 history records