Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T19:17:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x92c9…5aa5 crypto 130 markets active 1h ago coverage 41d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$162 (-2%) realized −$111 · open −$51
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate71%91W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$89now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$8
14 days−$60
30 days−$91
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 42% −$44
world 34% −$37
other 11% −$37
economics 6% −$51
tech 4% −$11
finance 2% −$4
sports 0% +$1
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +14.0% +3.2% 50% 50% -1.7%
≤30d 28 -4.8% -13.9% 7% 4% -11.8%
≤90d 129 -2.1% -11.4% 71% 1% -11.3%
all 129 -2.1% -11.4% 71% 1% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 1% -11.3%
10% -19.9% 1% -19.8%
15% -27.6% 0% -27.5%
20% -34.7% 0% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$4 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

41d coverage
Net worth$89
Realized−$111
Unrealized−$51
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses91 / 38
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)129 / 130
History coverage41d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 129 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Fed rate hike in 2026? No 70¢ 44¢ $140 $89 −$51 (-36%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Jun 24 $64 −$1 -2%
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? Jun 17 $31 +$9 +30%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Jun 17 $65 $0 -0%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $38 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $88 $0 -0%
Will Canada finish second in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Jun 15 $52 −$42 -82%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 13 $517 −$11 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 13 $297 −$15 -5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $282 −$1 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $102 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $26 +$1 +4%
Sports Prediction Markets taxed as gambling? Jun 06 $69 −$3 -5%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Jun 05 $22 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 05 $12 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 05 $52 −$11 -21%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 04 $130 $0 -0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 04 $138 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $201 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 02 $32 −$8 -25%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Jun 02 $18 −$4 -22%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 01 $154 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 01 $152 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 31 $30 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 31 $577 −$1 -0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? May 30 $320 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May? May 29 $71 −$1 -1%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele May 27 $18 $0 -1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 26 $76 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? May 25 $38 $0 -0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? May 25 $76 −$1 -1%
Solstice FDV above $150M one day after launch? May 24 $34 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $63 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 23 $32 $0 -0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 22 $106 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 May 22 $122 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 22 $30 $0 -0%
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? May 22 $66 $0 -0%
XRP Up or Down - May 20, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET May 21 $30 −$30 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET May 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET May 21 $30 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET May 21 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET May 21 $30 +$1 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 21 $12 $0 -0%
XRP Up or Down - May 19, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET May 19 $12 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - May 19, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET May 19 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET May 19 $30 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET May 19 $30 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 19 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1PM ET May 19 $30 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - May 18, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET May 19 $30 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL Yes 63¢ $30 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL Yes 63¢ $15 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL Yes 63¢ $18 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 63¢ $64 1h
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? SELL No 56¢ $40 6d
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? BUY No 41¢ $31 6d
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 70¢ $140 7d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? SELL No 76¢ $65 7d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 70¢ $38 8d
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 68¢ $88 8d
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 68¢ $88 8d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $38 8d
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL No 65¢ $130 8d
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 65¢ $132 8d
Will Canada finish second in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group SELL Yes 28¢ $5 8d
Will Canada finish second in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group SELL Yes $4 9d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY No 76¢ $65 9d
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL Yes 40¢ $44 10d
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL Yes 40¢ $36 10d
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $82 10d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 42¢ $85 11d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 42¢ $85 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 52¢ $104 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 52¢ $104 11d
Will Canada finish second in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group BUY Yes 43¢ $52 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $89 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $5 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $12 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 53¢ $106 12d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? SELL No 51¢ $102 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $89.00 · official $89.00 (match) · 357 history records