Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:22:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x92c9…bde3 crypto 1136 markets active 1h ago coverage 56d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 55d only
✗ bot/MM pace (53 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$504 (-3%) realized −$504 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate55%697W / 580L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day52.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$811
7 days−$811
14 days−$811
30 days−$811
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$940
other 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (53 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-22.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 151 -88.9% -89.9% 4% 4% -80.6%
≤30d 151 -88.9% -89.9% 4% 4% -80.6%
≤90d 1277 -14.1% -22.3% 55% 47% -17.5%
all 1277 -14.1% -22.3% 55% 47% -17.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover52.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.3% 47% -17.5%
10% ← realistic here -29.8% 30% -25.4%
15% -36.5% 11% -32.6%
20% -42.8% 7% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$7 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$504
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses697 / 580
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1277 / 1136
History coverage56d ⚠
Avg bet$15
Trades / day52.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1277 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 60¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 213 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 8PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$7 -137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$7 -225%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$3 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$3 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$7 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$6 -117%
Solana Up or Down - April 21, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$4 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +250%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$6 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$4 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $4 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $13 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 81¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $13 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $26 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $3 31d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $3 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.57 · official $1.57 (match) · 3500 history records