Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:42:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x92cb…ca61 crypto 590 markets active 0h ago coverage 14d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (50 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$23 (-2%) realized −$24 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate44%260W / 329L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day50.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$22
7 days+$9
14 days−$43
30 days−$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$42
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (50 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 210 +2.4% -7.4% 69% 66% -5.8%
≤30d 589 -8.8% -17.5% 44% 43% -10.2%
≤90d 589 -8.8% -17.5% 44% 43% -10.2%
all 589 -8.8% -17.5% 44% 43% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover50.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.5% 43% -10.2%
10% ← realistic here -25.4% 40% -18.8%
15% -32.6% 35% -26.6%
20% -39.2% 24% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$24
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses260 / 329
Open positions1
Markets (closed)589 / 590
History coverage14d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day50.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 589 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Down 64¢ 96¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+51%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 271 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -84%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +55%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $2 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $2 25m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET SELL Down 18¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET SELL Down 13¢ $0 29m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $2 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $2 36m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $2 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $2 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET SELL Up 19¢ $0 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET SELL Up 7¢ $0 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET SELL Down 10¢ $0 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET SELL Down 19¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET SELL Up 19¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $2 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.13 · official $2.86 (match) · 1007 history records