Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T19:54:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x92cc…1bb5 sports 121 markets active 1h ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$161 (-3%) realized −$161 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate44%53W / 68L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Fees−$38est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days+$13
14 days+$25
30 days−$188
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% −$881
politics 5% +$681
other 1% +$17
crypto 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +37.7% +24.6% 100% 100% +24.6%
≤30d 121 -3.3% -12.5% 44% 41% -10.9%
≤90d 121 -3.3% -12.5% 44% 41% -10.9%
all 121 -3.3% -12.5% 44% 41% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 41% -10.9%
10% -20.9% 41% -19.4%
15% -28.5% 39% -27.2%
20% -35.5% 32% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$24 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$161
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses53 / 68
Est. fees paid−$38
Open positions0
Markets (closed)121 / 121
History coverage29d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 121 Trades
no open positions (13 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Jun 29 $33 +$13 +38%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $21 +$12 +57%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +86%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $842 −$840 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $10 +$3 +27%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $10 +$1 +8%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $22 −$22 -99%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $10 +$5 +47%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +62%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 202.5 Jun 14 $1,569 −$3 -0%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $10 +$17 +165%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 201.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $10 +$9 +90%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $71 −$70 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $5 +$6 +114%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Chicago Sky vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 12.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 13 $160 +$89 +56%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $10 +$2 +23%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $5 +$18 +344%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $10 +$4 +37%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5 Jun 11 $10 +$8 +80%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $5 +$57 +1116%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 214.5 Jun 11 $456 −$84 -18%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5 Jun 11 $14 −$6 -43%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 11 $14 $0 +1%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 9.5 Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5 Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $15 −$1 -6%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 Jun 10 $23 −$14 -62%
Dallas Wings vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 171.5 Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5) Jun 10 $10 +$5 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Brazil 72¢ $33 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 63¢ $21 10d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 94¢ $821 14d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 52¢ $22 14d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Josh Hokit 92¢ $10 14d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Sean OMalley 78¢ $10 14d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 14d
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Under 67¢ $10 14d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $20 14d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 202.5 BUY Under 98¢ $783 15d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 202.5 SELL Under 89¢ $769 15d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 202.5 BUY Under 90¢ $786 15d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 201.5 BUY Over 53¢ $10 15d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 15d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $10 15d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 15d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Minnesota Twins 18¢ $1 16d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 61¢ $61 16d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 61¢ $10 16d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 52¢ $10 16d
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 23¢ $2 16d
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 12.5 BUY Over 55¢ $5 16d
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 56¢ $10 16d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Ben Shelton 46¢ $5 16d
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Detroit Tigers 33¢ $5 16d
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) BUY Milwaukee Brewers 64¢ $160 16d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 23¢ $5 16d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 28¢ $5 17d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 14¢ $5 17d
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D BUY Anubis Gaming 36¢ $5 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 279 history records