Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T16:33:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x92d0…5630 crypto 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$52 (-25%) realized −$52 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate62%5W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$51
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-35.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -28.7% -35.5% 62% 25% -31.9%
≤30d 8 -28.7% -35.5% 62% 25% -31.9%
≤90d 8 -28.7% -35.5% 62% 25% -31.9%
all 8 -28.7% -35.5% 62% 25% -31.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.5% 25% -31.9%
10% -41.7% 12% -38.4%
15% -47.3% 0% -44.4%
20% -52.5% 0% -49.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 65% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$23 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$52
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses5 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage1d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 10AM ET Jun 28 $35 +$7 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 2PM ET Jun 27 $23 +$2 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 1PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 10AM ET Jun 27 $25 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 9AM ET Jun 27 $47 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5AM ET Jun 27 $9 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8AM ET Jun 27 $22 −$22 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 12AM ET Jun 27 $42 −$41 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 10AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $35 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 2PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $23 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 1PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 23h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 10AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $25 25h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 9AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 26h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 9AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $10 26h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 9AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $37 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $22 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $9 30h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 12AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $42 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 15 history records