Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:08:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
92 0x92d0…269e world 257 markets active 1h ago coverage 103d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable world specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 103d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$46,229 (+18%) realized +$45,297 · open +$932
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate50%124W / 122L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$979per market
Trades / day33.1pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$7,789now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
world 86% +$16,411
other 7% +$4,613
politics 4% +$1,597
economics 1% −$3,359
tech 1% +$345
sports 0% +$27
finance 0% +$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 -2.0% -11.4% 43% 37% -2.8%
≤30d 112 +9.3% -1.1% 45% 38% -4.0%
≤90d 229 +14.3% +3.4% 49% 41% -3.5%
all 246 +18.9% +7.6% 50% 42% -2.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.1 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +7.6% 42% -2.5%
10% -2.7% 30% -11.8%
15% ← realistic here -12.1% 21% -20.3%
20% -20.7% 16% -28.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$1,153) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +30% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
7.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$351 vs −$204 · ×1.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.75 per $1 lost it wins $1.75
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$7,789
Realized+$45,297
Unrealized+$932
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses124 / 122
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions11
Markets (closed)246 / 257
History coverage103d ⚠
Avg bet$979
Trades / day33.1
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 246 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 51¢ 62¢ $1,520 $1,845 +$325 (+21%)
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? Yes 61¢ 72¢ $1,036 $1,232 +$197 (+19%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 68¢ 81¢ $1,015 $1,222 +$207 (+20%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No 11¢ 10¢ $1,095 $950 −$145 (-13%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? Yes 56¢ 72¢ $561 $725 +$164 (+29%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 48¢ 46¢ $754 $715 −$38 (-5%)
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? No 63¢ 94¢ $314 $466 +$152 (+48%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? No 58¢ 80¢ $291 $402 +$111 (+38%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $120 $115 −$5 (-4%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $110 $65 −$45 (-41%)
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21? No 67¢ 83¢ $40 $49 +$10 (+24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $282 −$112 -40%
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? Jun 17 $583 +$75 +13%
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? Jun 16 $530 −$396 -75%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 16 $403 −$149 -37%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 16 $2,435 −$230 -10%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 16 $244 −$36 -15%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $405 −$60 -15%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $521 +$96 +18%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $967 +$484 +50%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 15 $297 −$198 -67%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? Jun 15 $37 −$12 -33%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $3,168 −$404 -13%
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $157 −$14 -9%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? Jun 15 $2,062 +$772 +37%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $3,055 +$2,094 +69%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $7,353 −$422 -6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $5,342 +$79 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? Jun 14 $1,600 +$438 +27%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $740 +$992 +134%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 14 $1,464 +$692 +47%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $5,678 −$540 -10%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $3,109 +$756 +24%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 14 $170 −$58 -34%
US and Iran sign an agreement by July 31, 2026? Jun 14 $160 −$8 -5%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $757 +$104 +14%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $1,537 +$377 +24%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 14 $6,056 +$876 +14%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 14 $74 −$22 -30%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $88 +$4 +4%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European countr Jun 14 $86 −$48 -56%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $564 −$138 -24%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 13 $1,619 −$127 -8%
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 13 $78 −$8 -10%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $551 +$60 +11%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $2,655 −$152 -6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 13 $1,811 +$230 +13%
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? Jun 13 $97 −$75 -77%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $1,286 −$369 -29%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Jun 12 $417 +$29 +7%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $142 +$21 +15%
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by J Jun 12 $283 −$7 -2%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 12 $313 −$9 -3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 12 $589 +$84 +14%
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $347 +$97 +28%
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $170 −$124 -73%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 11 $512 −$13 -2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $320 −$10 -3%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 11 $776 −$71 -9%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 10 $151 +$50 +33%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $191 −$78 -41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 14¢ $104 49m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 50m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 50m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 50m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 13¢ $61 50m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $147 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 25¢ $76 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 24¢ $59 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 59¢ $147 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 62¢ $310 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 58¢ $144 1h
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 71¢ $6 1h
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? SELL Yes 42¢ $168 1h
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? BUY Yes 43¢ $170 2h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL Yes 34¢ $170 2h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL Yes 33¢ $165 2h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 27¢ $270 2h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL No 77¢ $400 2h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL No 77¢ $15 2h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 71¢ $65 2h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 60¢ $268 2h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL No 58¢ $870 2h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL No 58¢ $29 2h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL No 58¢ $145 2h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL No 57¢ $154 2h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 40¢ $86 3h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 39¢ $139 3h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 25¢ $36 3h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 32¢ $102 3h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 33¢ $12 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,788.62 · official $7,788.77 (match) · 3500 history records