Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:01:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x92d1…0154 sports 14 markets active 6d ago coverage 140d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$2,023 (-11%) realized −$1,965 · open −$58
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate58%7W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,281per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$100est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$402now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$2,995
30 days−$2,968
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 49% −$3,569
politics 19% +$40
crypto 18% +$1,579
other 9% −$70
world 4% +$32
culture 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 -22.3% -29.7% 67% 0% -65.5%
≤90d 8 -7.9% -16.6% 62% 0% -37.1%
all 12 -0.4% -9.9% 58% 17% -19.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 17% -19.6%
10% -18.5% 17% -27.3%
15% -26.4% 17% -34.3%
20% -33.6% 17% -40.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 98% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$466 vs −$1,040 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$402
Realized−$1,965
Unrealized−$58
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses7 / 5
Est. fees paid−$100
Open positions2
Markets (closed)12 / 14
History coverage140d
Avg bet$1,281
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? No 82¢ 72¢ $377 $329 −$48 (-13%)
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $83 $73 −$9 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $4,000 −$3,000 -75%
Ukraine peace referendum passed before 2027? Jun 04 $402 +$5 +1%
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? May 29 $398 +$27 +7%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $1,396 +$17 +1%
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 25 $293 +$7 +2%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $1,070 −$1 -0%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 31 $964 +$24 +2%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Mar 31 $1,149 −$22 -2%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Mar 09 $1,500 $0 -0%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Kick Feb 08 $2,400 +$1,600 +67%
Warriors vs. Suns Feb 04 $2,176 −$2,176 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 24? Jan 25 $1,721 +$1,579 +92%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $29 5d
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $28 5d
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $30 5d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 10¢ $1,000 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 40¢ $546 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 40¢ $13 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 40¢ $1 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 40¢ $158 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 40¢ $37 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 40¢ $36 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 40¢ $19 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 40¢ $47 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 40¢ $33 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 40¢ $55 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 40¢ $13 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 40¢ $30 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 40¢ $27 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 40¢ $20 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 40¢ $4 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 40¢ $8 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 40¢ $19 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 40¢ $15 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 40¢ $19 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 40¢ $4 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 40¢ $138 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 40¢ $11 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 40¢ $7 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 40¢ $24 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 40¢ $8 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 40¢ $667 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $402.08 · official $402.08 (match) · 164 history records