Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:10:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x92d3…f5b1 crypto 221 markets active 2d ago coverage 63d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$12 (-2%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate51%112W / 109L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$9
14 days+$8
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 108 +2.8% -7.0% 53% 53% -11.7%
≤30d 136 +4.7% -5.3% 52% 52% -8.0%
≤90d 221 -2.5% -11.8% 51% 49% -12.6%
all 221 -2.5% -11.8% 51% 49% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 49% -12.6%
10% -20.2% 49% -20.9%
15% -27.9% 45% -28.6%
20% -35.0% 44% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses112 / 109
Open positions0
Markets (closed)221 / 221
History coverage63d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 221 Trades
no open positions (88 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 393 history records