trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 12 | -37.7% | -43.7% | 50% | 42% | -52.1% |
| ≤30d | 18 | -31.1% | -37.7% | 50% | 44% | -26.2% |
| ≤90d | 18 | -31.1% | -37.7% | 50% | 44% | -26.2% |
| all | 18 | -31.1% | -37.7% | 50% | 44% | -26.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -37.7% | 44% | -26.2% |
| 10% | -43.6% | 39% | -33.2% |
| 15% | -49.1% | 17% | -39.7% |
| 20% | -54.1% | 0% | -45.6% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 16¢ | 20¢ | $100 | $123 | +$23 (+23%) |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 17¢ | 14¢ | $100 | $81 | −$19 (-19%) |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 8¢ | 12¢ | $50 | $74 | +$24 (+49%) |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 11¢ | 7¢ | $85 | $53 | −$32 (-38%) |
| Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 7¢ | 6¢ | $57 | $48 | −$9 (-15%) |
| Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 5¢ | 5¢ | $49 | $48 | −$1 (-3%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? | Jun 22 | $16 | −$16 | -100% |
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Jun 22 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? | Jun 22 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? | Jun 22 | $50 | −$50 | -100% |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 22 | $45 | −$45 | -100% |
| Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? | Jun 22 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 22 | $52 | +$11 | +22% |
| Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? | Jun 20 | $10 | +$2 | +24% |
| Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? | Jun 20 | $10 | +$3 | +29% |
| Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? | Jun 20 | $10 | +$4 | +38% |
| Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? | Jun 20 | $10 | +$1 | +8% |
| Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? | Jun 20 | $10 | +$3 | +26% |
| Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? | Jun 13 | $14 | +$5 | +38% |
| SpaceX IPO: Open Up/Down on Second Day | Jun 12 | $102 | −$13 | -13% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? | Jun 12 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 12 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? | Jun 12 | $101 | +$44 | +44% |
| Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? | Jun 11 | $20 | +$5 | +24% |