Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:03:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x92d4…d21d sports 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$125 (-11%) realized −$111 · open −$14
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate50%9W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$428now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$119
7 days−$112
14 days−$91
30 days−$91
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% −$57
sports 23% −$24
tech 9% −$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-37.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -37.7% -43.7% 50% 42% -52.1%
≤30d 18 -31.1% -37.7% 50% 44% -26.2%
≤90d 18 -31.1% -37.7% 50% 44% -26.2%
all 18 -31.1% -37.7% 50% 44% -26.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.7% 44% -26.2%
10% -43.6% 39% -33.2%
15% -49.1% 17% -39.7%
20% -54.1% 0% -45.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 71% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -58% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$19 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$428
Realized−$111
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses9 / 9
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions6
Markets (closed)18 / 24
History coverage12d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $100 $123 +$23 (+23%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $100 $81 −$19 (-19%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $50 $74 +$24 (+49%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $85 $53 −$32 (-38%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $57 $48 −$9 (-15%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $49 $48 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 22 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 22 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $52 +$11 +22%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 +$2 +24%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 +$3 +29%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 +$4 +38%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 +$1 +8%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 +$3 +26%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $14 +$5 +38%
SpaceX IPO: Open Up/Down on Second Day Jun 12 $102 −$13 -13%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $101 +$44 +44%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $20 +$5 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $51 2h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $50 6h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $63 6h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes $10 2d
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 2d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY No 80¢ $10 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $10 2d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY No 72¢ $10 2d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY No 92¢ $10 2d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY No 79¢ $10 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $16 7d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $52 7d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $59 7d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 84¢ $99 7d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 44¢ $45 8d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 8d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 8d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 8d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 19¢ $5 9d
SpaceX IPO: Open Up/Down on Second Day SELL Down 45¢ $89 9d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY No 87¢ $50 9d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $72 9d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 9d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 9d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY No 69¢ $101 10d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL No 100¢ $25 10d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 11d
SpaceX IPO: Open Up/Down on Second Day BUY Down 49¢ $102 11d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 84¢ $100 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $427.68 · official $427.68 (match) · 62 history records