Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:25:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x92d7…8ce9 world 44 markets active 1h ago coverage 268d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-1%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate23%10W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 59% −$4
other 14% $0
politics 11% $0
sports 5% −$1
economics 4% $0
tech 3% $0
crypto 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -1.5% -10.9% 0% 0% -10.6%
≤30d 14 -1.1% -10.5% 14% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 14 -1.1% -10.5% 14% 0% -10.3%
all 44 -0.6% -10.1% 23% 5% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 5% -10.0%
10% -18.7% 5% -18.6%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 81% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

268d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses10 / 34
Open positions0
Markets (closed)44 / 44
History coverage268d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 44 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $27 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $27 −$1 -2%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $12 $0 -3%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $28 $0 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $30 −$1 -3%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $56 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $62 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $31 −$2 -5%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $12 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 08 $31 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $31 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $31 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $31 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $64 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 20 $1 −$1 -53%
Will Trump pardon Elizabeth Holmes in 2025? Oct 20 $2 $0 -4%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Oct 20 $25 $0 -0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 20 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Oct 13 $20 +$1 +6%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 12 $6 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 11 $6 $0 -0%
Will Yuichiro Tamaki be the next Prime Minister of Japan? Oct 08 $1 $0 +23%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by October 31? Oct 08 $8 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Sumy by December 31? Oct 08 $8 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 07 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 04 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by September 30? Sep 29 $21 $0 -0%
Will Zhipu AI have a #1 AI model this year? Sep 29 $22 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Sep 29 $18 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Sep 29 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Sep 28 $20 $0 -2%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 28 $1 $0 -9%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by September 30? Sep 28 $1 $0 +28%
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? Sep 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Sep 27 $2 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 27 $2 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Sep 27 $23 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump visit Taiwan in 2025? Sep 26 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 26 $26 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 26 $26 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $25 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $2 3h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $27 7h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 48¢ $27 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 49¢ $27 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 32¢ $12 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 33¢ $12 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $27 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $28 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $28 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $28 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $14 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $14 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $28 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $28 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $28 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $3 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $25 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $28 7d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 7d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 75¢ $6 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 75¢ $16 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 75¢ $7 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $31 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $33 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $33 8d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 13¢ $7 10d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 13¢ $5 10d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 146 history records