trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 1 | -100.0% | -100.0% | 0% | 0% | -100.0% |
| ≤90d | 9 | +7.7% | -2.6% | 56% | 56% | +15.5% |
| all | 27 | +16.7% | +5.6% | 70% | 52% | +8.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +5.6% | 52% | +8.5% |
| 10% | -4.5% | 33% | -1.9% |
| 15% | -13.7% | 30% | -11.4% |
| 20% | -22.2% | 22% | -20.1% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Croatia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? | Yes | 2¢ | 2¢ | $35 | $28 | −$7 (-19%) |
| Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 23-29? | Yes | 3¢ | 2¢ | $35 | $21 | −$15 (-41%) |
| Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? | Yes | 3¢ | 4¢ | $17 | $19 | +$3 (+16%) |
| Will Senegal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? | Yes | 2¢ | 2¢ | $10 | $11 | +$1 (+13%) |
| Will Australia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? | Yes | 2¢ | 2¢ | $10 | $8 | −$2 (-17%) |
| Will Egypt reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? | Yes | 2¢ | 1¢ | $11 | $7 | −$4 (-35%) |
| Will Ivory Coast reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? | Yes | 2¢ | 2¢ | $4 | $4 | −$0 (-2%) |
| Will Bosnia and Herzegovina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $5 | $2 | −$3 (-63%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | Jun 03 | $141 | −$135 | -96% |
| Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-05-09? | May 10 | $152 | +$125 | +82% |
| MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? | Apr 29 | $125 | −$118 | -94% |
| Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026? | Apr 28 | $635 | +$460 | +72% |
| Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-04-26? | Apr 28 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will MegaETH launch a token by May 31, 2026? | Apr 23 | $1,000 | +$205 | +20% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026? | Apr 19 | $750 | −$52 | -7% |
| Will Fenerbahçe SK vs. Çaykur Rizespor end in a draw? | Apr 17 | $27 | +$43 | +161% |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Apr 07 | $2,232 | +$875 | +39% |
| Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-10? | Mar 28 | $25 | −$25 | -100% |
| Will Fenerbahçe SK vs. Samsunspor end in a draw? | Mar 28 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Kurds declare independence from Iran? | Mar 28 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-01-25? | Mar 28 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-03-08? | Mar 09 | $10 | +$49 | +488% |
| Opinion FDV above $250M one day after launch? | Mar 06 | $200 | +$23 | +11% |
| Zama auction clearing price above $0.04? | Jan 26 | $10 | −$10 | -96% |
| Zama auction clearing price above $0.05? | Jan 26 | $200 | +$95 | +48% |
| Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on January 5? | Jan 06 | $201 | +$53 | +26% |
| Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? | Dec 31 | $100 | +$18 | +18% |
| Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? | Dec 30 | $250 | +$30 | +12% |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem | Dec 30 | $200 | +$7 | +4% |
| Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? | Dec 30 | $1,482 | +$23 | +2% |
| Will Almanak FDV above $80M one day after launch? | Dec 14 | $600 | +$1 | +0% |
| MegaETH $250M pre-deposit bridge filled in the first hour? | Nov 26 | $13 | $0 | +2% |
| MegaETH $250M pre-deposit bridge filled in 15 minutes? | Nov 25 | $7 | +$6 | +96% |
| Will Aztec launch a token in 2025? | Nov 15 | $5 | +$1 | +20% |
| Celestia token above $2 one week after airdrop? | Nov 18 | $135 | +$70 | +52% |