Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T21:31:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
92 0x92d8…9762 other 368 markets active 4h ago coverage 168d ⚠
COPY-WORTHYcopy this Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 168d only
! high turnover
Total PnL +$185,563 (+23%) realized +$185,563 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +62% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +22% what you keep after slip
Net edge+22%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate60%221W / 147L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$2,154per market
Trades / day19.2pace
Fees−$656est.
Kalshi-fit27%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$20,589
7 days+$24,014
14 days+$24,295
30 days+$24,295
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 72% +$113,606
sports 27% +$31,212
world 1% +$6,997
crypto 0% −$244
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+46.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +353.7% +310.5% 67% 33% +50.9%
≤30d 7 +303.6% +265.2% 71% 29% +36.8%
≤90d 179 -26.7% -33.7% 29% 21% -9.4%
all 368 +62.1% +46.6% 60% 50% +7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.2 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +46.6% 50% +7.3%
10% ← realistic here +32.6% 42% -3.0%
15% +19.8% 37% -12.4%
20% +8.0% 33% -21.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +62% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$1,489) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +148% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,139 vs −$691 · ×1.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.51 per $1 lost it wins $2.51
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

168d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$185,563
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses221 / 147
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$656
Open positions0
Markets (closed)368 / 368
History coverage168d ⚠
Avg bet$2,154
Trades / day19.2
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 368 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $6,502 +$20,589 +317%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $4,800 −$4,800 -100%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $9,888 +$102 +1%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $6,768 +$325 +5%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $271 +$9,452 +3494%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $1,654 −$1,653 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $9,709 +$281 +3%
Will CA Paranaense win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $8,398 −$8,337 -99%
Will Red Bull Bragantino win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $18 −$17 -97%
Will Cagliari Calcio win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $2,993 −$2,926 -98%
Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Valencia CF: O/U 5.5 May 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-05-12? May 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Will AS Roma win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Real Betis Balompié: O/U 2.5 May 09 $17 −$16 -97%
FC Augsburg vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach: O/U 2.5 May 09 $0 $0 -97%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $469 +$281 +60%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $422 +$66 +16%
Will FC Augsburg win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $234 +$144 +62%
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $35 +$6 +18%
São Paulo FC vs. EC Bahia: O/U 3.5 May 04 $686 +$8 +1%
AJ Auxerre vs. Angers SCO: Both Teams to Score May 03 $4 +$10 +276%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $293 +$181 +62%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $9,959 +$1,133 +11%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-02? May 03 $14 +$12 +82%
Will NEC win on 2026-05-02? May 03 $161 +$629 +391%
CA Osasuna vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 1.5 May 02 $2,970 +$30 +1%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $490 +$73 +15%
Valencia CF vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 1.5 May 02 $13,627 +$169 +1%
Will Samsunspor win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $727 −$711 -98%
Will 1. FC Köln win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $2,511 −$454 -18%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-04-30? Apr 30 $3 −$3 -100%
Will FC Augsburg win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $210 +$296 +141%
1. FC Köln vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 2.5 Apr 25 $6 −$6 -100%
SSC Napoli vs. US Cremonese: O/U 4.5 Apr 25 $123 −$123 -100%
Will Levante UD win on 2026-04-23? Apr 25 $2,718 −$2,718 -100%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-04-21? Apr 25 $3,591 −$3,591 -100%
Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $1,608 +$362 +22%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $87 +$36 +42%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $300 +$60 +20%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-24? Apr 25 $1 +$2 +400%
Sunderland AFC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 4.5 Apr 25 $607 +$88 +14%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-04-23? Apr 23 $628 +$135 +21%
Will Lille OSC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 21 $822 +$55 +7%
Will Sporting CP vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica end in a draw? Apr 21 $270 −$270 -100%
Will FC Nantes win on 2026-04-19? Apr 21 $729 −$713 -98%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Will SV Werder Bremen win on 2026-04-18? Apr 21 $56 −$56 -100%
Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-04-18? Apr 21 $2,455 −$2,455 -100%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $2,191 +$365 +17%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $4,314 +$409 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 80¢ $1,928 3h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 80¢ $494 3h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 80¢ $22 3h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 80¢ $26 3h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 80¢ $348 3h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 80¢ $1,928 3h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 80¢ $1,928 3h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 80¢ $418 3h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 80¢ $1,928 3h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 80¢ $1,855 3h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 80¢ $1,975 3h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 80¢ $964 3h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 80¢ $11,557 3h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 80¢ $50 3h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 80¢ $444 3h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 80¢ $9 3h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 80¢ $49 3h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 80¢ $460 3h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 80¢ $437 3h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 80¢ $21 3h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 80¢ $10 3h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 80¢ $10 3h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 80¢ $100 3h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 80¢ $13 3h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 80¢ $100 3h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 80¢ $10 3h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 80¢ $10 3h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 20¢ $150 3h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 20¢ $5 3h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 20¢ $3,000 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records