Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T17:22:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
92 0x92da…5da6 other 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge! high turnover
Total PnL +$249 (+30%) realized +$248 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +17% what you keep after slip
Net edge+17%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate78%7W / 2L
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day10.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$118now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 81% +$180
crypto 15% +$38
sports 3% +$21
world 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+26.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +40.2% +26.9% 78% 67% +24.0%
≤30d 9 +40.2% +26.9% 78% 67% +24.0%
≤90d 9 +40.2% +26.9% 78% 67% +24.0%
all 9 +40.2% +26.9% 78% 67% +24.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +26.9% 67% +24.0%
10% +14.7% 67% +12.1%
15% +3.7% 44% +1.3%
20% -6.5% 22% -8.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 65% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +37% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +40% · $-wt +37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$6 · ×5.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×19.54 per $1 lost it wins $19.54
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$118
Realized+$248
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses7 / 2
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)9 / 12
History coverage4d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day10.6
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 64¢ 62¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $11 $15 +$4 (+36%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $233 +$87 +37%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $8 +$20 +247%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $144 +$69 +48%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $110 +$34 +31%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $16 +$1 +4%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $40 −$2 -5%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $33 +$23 +70%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $19 +$6 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $7 37m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 67¢ $97 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $190 23h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 24h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $320 35h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 83¢ $60 37h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $8 39h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $165 39h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $28 39h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 39h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 40h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $37 47h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $38 47h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $9 47h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 93¢ $9 47h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $44 47h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 93¢ $44 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $53 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 56¢ $53 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $110 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $6 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 2d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 34¢ $11 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 45¢ $4 2d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $4 2d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 47¢ $14 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $9 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $117.62 · official $119.19 · 43 history records