Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:31:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
92 0x92da…6783 sports 6 markets active 5d ago coverage 102d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$647 (-59%) realized −$647 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -68% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -71% what you keep after slip
Net edge-71%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate17%1W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$182per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$501
14 days−$501
30 days−$544
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% −$328
sports 25% −$216
world 14% −$105
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-71.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -59.9% -63.7% 25% 0% -60.2%
≤30d 5 -67.9% -71.0% 20% 0% -62.1%
≤90d 5 -67.9% -71.0% 20% 0% -62.1%
all 6 -68.3% -71.4% 17% 0% -63.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -71.4% 0% -63.6%
10% -74.1% 0% -67.1%
15% -76.6% 0% -70.3%
20% -78.9% 0% -73.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -58% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -68% · $-wt -60% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$132 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$647
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses1 / 5
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage102d
Avg bet$182
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $341 −$340 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $330 +$11 +4%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $89 −$39 -43%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $135 −$134 -99%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 31 $44 −$44 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31? Mar 10 $150 −$105 -70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $341 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 98¢ $342 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 95¢ $330 5d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? SELL Yes 26¢ $51 6d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $89 6d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 67¢ $135 6d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? BUY Yes 42¢ $44 18d
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31? SELL Yes 18¢ $45 100d
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 62¢ $150 107d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 9 history records