Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:45:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x92dc…37df politics 121 markets active 1h ago coverage 97d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$35 (-0%) realized −$34 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate22%27W / 93L
Whale WR17%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$159per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$21
14 days−$33
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 31% −$13
other 24% −$14
sports 23% −$12
crypto 8% −$1
world 5% −$6
tech 3% −$3
culture 3% −$2
economics 3% +$1
finance 2% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -1.5% -10.9% 0% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 64 -0.9% -10.3% 19% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 109 -0.5% -10.0% 22% 0% -9.8%
all 120 -0.5% -10.0% 22% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 17% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized−$34
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses27 / 93
Whale WR (big bets)17%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)120 / 121
History coverage97d
Avg bet$159
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 120 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 94¢ 92¢ $45 $44 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? Jun 15 $59 −$1 -2%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $435 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $105 −$2 -2%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $99 −$1 -1%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 14 $45 $0 -1%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $98 $0 -0%
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $57 −$1 -2%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $283 $0 -0%
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $59 −$1 -2%
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $45 $0 -1%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $509 −$1 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $41 −$4 -10%
Will Austria reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $39 −$1 -4%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $48 −$1 -2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 11 $57 $0 -1%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $18 $0 -0%
Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 10 $51 −$1 -2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 10 $112 −$2 -2%
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 10 $48 −$1 -2%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $45 $0 -0%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 09 $57 −$1 -1%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 09 $167 $0 -0%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 07 $44 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $49 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $92 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $240 $0 -0%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 05 $5 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? Jun 05 $48 −$1 -2%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $52 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $156 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $703 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $50 $0 -0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $211 $0 +0%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 03 $58 $0 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Jun 03 $52 −$1 -2%
Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 03 $64 −$6 -9%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 02 $59 $0 +0%
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 02 $86 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $250 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $101 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $237 −$1 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $56 $0 -1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $92 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 31 $311 −$1 -0%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 31 $49 $0 +1%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $256 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 29 $167 −$1 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 29 $286 −$1 -0%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 28 $89 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 28 $43 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 94¢ $45 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? SELL No 94¢ $58 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? BUY No 96¢ $59 5h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $56 6h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $56 11h
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $55 12h
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $55 16h
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 96¢ $46 16h
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 96¢ $46 21h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 91¢ $44 22h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $45 28h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $44 29h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $44 37h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $53 37h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $53 45h
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $56 46h
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $57 2d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 92¢ $38 2d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 92¢ $38 2d
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 90¢ $58 2d
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $59 2d
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $45 2d
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $45 3d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $64 3d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $64 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $37 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $41 3d
Will Austria reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $38 3d
Will Austria reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $39 3d
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $47 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.25 · official $44.25 (match) · 461 history records