Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T21:29:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x92df…7a08 crypto 122 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (89 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$49 (-6%) realized −$34 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate42%47W / 66L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day88.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% −$67
other 6% −$12
tech 2% −$14
sports 2% −$3
world 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (89 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-30.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 113 -22.7% -30.1% 42% 35% -19.5%
≤30d 113 -22.7% -30.1% 42% 35% -19.5%
≤90d 113 -22.7% -30.1% 42% 35% -19.5%
all 113 -22.7% -30.1% 42% 35% -19.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover88.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -30.1% 35% -19.5%
10% ← realistic here -36.7% 26% -27.2%
15% -42.9% 16% -34.2%
20% -48.5% 11% -40.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -32% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized−$34
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses47 / 66
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)113 / 122
History coverage3d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day88.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 113 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $18 $4 −$14 (-76%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 27¢ 28¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+6%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Yes 18¢ 14¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+13%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-14%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-19%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 27 $3 +$1 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 27 $8 −$4 -47%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 27 $25 −$1 -5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 27 $18 −$3 -15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 27 $31 −$15 -49%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 27 $31 −$3 -9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 27 $15 +$1 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 27 $31 +$2 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 27 $3 $0 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 27 $6 +$1 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 27 $3 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 27 $8 −$3 -38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$2 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 27 $51 −$27 -52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 27 $25 +$3 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 27 $25 +$3 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 27 $5 $0 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$2 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$4 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$2 +17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$3 +32%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$1 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$3 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$5 +47%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 27 $20 $0 -1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$4 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 27 $52 −$24 -46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 27 $52 −$16 -31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 27 $26 +$13 +49%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 27 $51 +$3 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 27 $3 −$1 -32%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 27 $25 +$5 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 27 $1 $0 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 27 $1 $0 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 27 $1 $0 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 27 $3 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 27 $3 +$1 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 27 $2 $0 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 27 $1 $0 -18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 27 $3 $0 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -71%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 27 $3 −$1 -32%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 27 $2 −$1 -48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 27 $3 +$2 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 27 $1 $0 -22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Up 74¢ $4 23m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 24m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $4 30m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Down 72¢ $4 31m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $4 32m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET SELL Up 37¢ $3 32m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $6 35m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET SELL Up 81¢ $7 38m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $6 39m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET SELL Up 67¢ $5 40m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $6 40m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET SELL Up 81¢ $8 41m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $6 43m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $7 44m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $6 45m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET SELL Up 13¢ $2 45m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $6 46m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET SELL Up 79¢ $7 47m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $6 48m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $15 49m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Up 61¢ $16 52m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $15 53m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $16 54m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $15 54m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Down 35¢ $12 56m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $16 57m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Down 75¢ $17 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $15 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $16 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $15 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.38 · official $11.44 (match) · 298 history records