Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:31:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
92 0x92e3…ab49 other 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$585 (-11%) realized −$297 · open −$288
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%3W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$469per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$1,095now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$724
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-19.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -11.0% -19.5% 43% 43% -20.6%
≤30d 7 -11.0% -19.5% 43% 43% -20.6%
≤90d 7 -11.0% -19.5% 43% 43% -20.6%
all 7 -11.0% -19.5% 43% 43% -20.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.5% 43% -20.6%
10% -27.2% 43% -28.2%
15% -34.2% 29% -35.1%
20% -40.7% 14% -41.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 88% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$370 vs −$387 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$1,095
Realized−$297
Unrealized−$288
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses3 / 4
Open positions4
Markets (closed)7 / 11
History coverage5d
Avg bet$469
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Yes 30¢ 28¢ $600 $570 −$30 (-5%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? No 44¢ 42¢ $488 $472 −$17 (-3%)
Will Cap launch a token by September 30, 2026? No 11¢ 2¢ $197 $27 −$170 (-86%)
Will Cap launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 6¢ 2¢ $97 $26 −$71 (-73%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $199 +$301 +152%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,343 +$671 +50%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $450 −$440 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,019 −$1,006 -99%
Will o1 launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $5 $0 -7%
Will Propr launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 12 $481 +$137 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $306 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $306 7h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 39¢ $199 9h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 44¢ $497 12h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 5¢ $103 14h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $1,343 30h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 22¢ $450 37h
Will Cap launch a token by September 30, 2026? SELL No 20¢ $10 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 48¢ $244 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $59 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $119 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $597 3d
Will o1 launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL No 4¢ $5 4d
Will o1 launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY No 3¢ $2 4d
Will o1 launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY No 3¢ $3 4d
Will Cap launch a token by September 30, 2026? BUY No 10¢ $11 4d
Will Cap launch a token by September 30, 2026? SELL No 11¢ $116 4d
Will Propr launch a token by June 30, 2027? SELL No 16¢ $132 4d
Will Propr launch a token by June 30, 2027? SELL No 18¢ $210 5d
Will Propr launch a token by June 30, 2027? SELL No 24¢ $162 5d
Will Propr launch a token by June 30, 2027? BUY No 28¢ $1 5d
Will Cap launch a token by September 30, 2026? BUY No 54¢ $3 5d
Will Propr launch a token by June 30, 2027? SELL No 28¢ $114 5d
Will Cap launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY No 6¢ $103 5d
Will Cap launch a token by September 30, 2026? BUY No 11¢ $333 5d
Will Propr launch a token by June 30, 2027? BUY No 14¢ $479 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,094.75 · official $1,094.95 (match) · 29 history records