Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:09:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
92 0x92e4…613e crypto 22 markets active 1d ago coverage 140d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$7 (+0%) realized +$18 · open −$11
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate48%10W / 11L
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$485per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$149now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days+$4
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$4
politics 1% −$11
sports 0% +$8
other 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -28.7% -35.5% 33% 33% -20.5%
≤30d 7 +1.1% -8.6% 43% 43% +17.6%
≤90d 16 -11.1% -19.6% 50% 38% -1.5%
all 21 +20.9% +9.3% 48% 38% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.3% 38% -9.5%
10% -1.1% 38% -18.1%
15% -10.7% 29% -26.0%
20% -19.4% 24% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +83% → late -36% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.42 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$149
Realized+$18
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses10 / 11
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)21 / 22
History coverage140d
Avg bet$485
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 50¢ 57¢ $75 $86 +$11 (+15%)
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 50¢ 42¢ $75 $63 −$11 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 15 $3 +$4 +114%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 08 $4 +$7 +168%
Suns vs. Thunder Jun 01 $2 $0 -2%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs Jun 01 $1 $0 +27%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Apr 23 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 16? Apr 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on March 24? Apr 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on February 2? Apr 09 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down on April 1? Apr 09 $1 $0 +5%
Solana Up or Down on March 30? Apr 01 $2 $0 +6%
XRP Up or Down on March 27? Mar 30 $2 +$1 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 26? Mar 27 $2 +$1 +97%
XRP Up or Down on March 25? Mar 26 $1 $0 +24%
Solana Up or Down on March 9? Mar 16 $1 +$1 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down on February 21? Feb 24 $5,352 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? Feb 21 $5,132 −$5 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down on February 6? Feb 18 $2 +$9 +567%
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Jan 27 $4 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 35¢ $2 24h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 47h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 47h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $1 8d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $2 9d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $2 9d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $1 14d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $1 15d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $1 16d
Timberwolves vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 78¢ $1 42d
Suns vs. Thunder BUY Suns 50¢ $2 48d
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves BUY Nuggets 56¢ $1 55d
XRP Up or Down on April 1? BUY Up 95¢ $1 77d
Solana Up or Down on March 30? BUY Up 94¢ $2 79d
XRP Up or Down on March 27? BUY Down 54¢ $2 82d
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 26? BUY Down 50¢ $2 83d
XRP Up or Down on March 25? BUY Up 80¢ $1 84d
Ethereum Up or Down on March 24? BUY Down 27¢ $1 85d
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 16? BUY Down $2 93d
Solana Up or Down on March 9? BUY Up 66¢ $1 100d
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? SELL No 100¢ $5,127 116d
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $5,132 119d
Ethereum Up or Down on February 6? BUY Up 15¢ $2 131d
Ethereum Up or Down on February 2? BUY Down 69¢ $1 135d
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? SELL No $0 140d
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? SELL Yes 98¢ $4 140d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $149.40 · official $149.40 (match) · 114 history records