trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | -28.7% | -35.5% | 33% | 33% | -20.5% |
| ≤30d | 7 | +1.1% | -8.6% | 43% | 43% | +17.6% |
| ≤90d | 16 | -11.1% | -19.6% | 50% | 38% | -1.5% |
| all | 21 | +20.9% | +9.3% | 48% | 38% | -9.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +9.3% | 38% | -9.5% |
| 10% | -1.1% | 38% | -18.1% |
| 15% | -10.7% | 29% | -26.0% |
| 20% | -19.4% | 24% | -33.3% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | No | 50¢ | 57¢ | $75 | $86 | +$11 (+15%) |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Yes | 50¢ | 42¢ | $75 | $63 | −$11 (-15%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will France win on 2026-06-16? | Jun 16 | $2 | −$2 | -98% |
| Spurs vs. Knicks | Jun 15 | $3 | +$4 | +114% |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? | Jun 15 | $3 | −$3 | -99% |
| Spurs vs. Knicks | Jun 09 | $1 | −$1 | -98% |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | Jun 08 | $4 | +$7 | +168% |
| Suns vs. Thunder | Jun 01 | $2 | $0 | -2% |
| Timberwolves vs. Spurs | Jun 01 | $1 | $0 | +27% |
| Nuggets vs. Timberwolves | Apr 23 | $1 | −$1 | -99% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down on March 16? | Apr 09 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Ethereum Up or Down on March 24? | Apr 09 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Ethereum Up or Down on February 2? | Apr 09 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| XRP Up or Down on April 1? | Apr 09 | $1 | $0 | +5% |
| Solana Up or Down on March 30? | Apr 01 | $2 | $0 | +6% |
| XRP Up or Down on March 27? | Mar 30 | $2 | +$1 | +82% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down on March 26? | Mar 27 | $2 | +$1 | +97% |
| XRP Up or Down on March 25? | Mar 26 | $1 | $0 | +24% |
| Solana Up or Down on March 9? | Mar 16 | $1 | +$1 | +50% |
| Ethereum Up or Down on February 21? | Feb 24 | $5,352 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? | Feb 21 | $5,132 | −$5 | -0% |
| Ethereum Up or Down on February 6? | Feb 18 | $2 | +$9 | +567% |
| Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | Jan 27 | $4 | $0 | -0% |