Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T17:24:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x92e6…8222 sports 1112 markets active 0h ago coverage 629d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$5,503 (-6%) realized −$5,510 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate65%726W / 384L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$80per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$195est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$66now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$52
7 days−$21
14 days−$642
30 days−$219
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% −$2,599
other 44% −$3,297
world 2% +$222
crypto 0% −$36
politics 0% −$13
finance 0% −$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -4.7% -13.8% 62% 51% -12.2%
≤30d 155 +6.0% -4.1% 68% 61% -12.3%
≤90d 636 -0.2% -9.7% 66% 51% -14.8%
all 1110 -2.5% -11.8% 65% 53% -15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 53% -15.4%
10% -20.2% 38% -23.5%
15% -27.9% 27% -30.9%
20% -35.0% 16% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$48 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

629d coverage
Net worth$66
Realized−$5,510
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses726 / 384
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$195
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1110 / 1112
History coverage629d
Avg bet$80
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1110 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs ECHO - Map 2 Winner Sharks 94¢ 100¢ $55 $58 +$3 (+6%)
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner Nigma Galaxy 62¢ 100¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+61%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eur Jun 28 $20 +$2 +12%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $50 +$15 +31%
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $16 −$16 -99%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $18 +$12 +67%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $62 +$7 +10%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $53 +$9 +16%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks - Map 2 Winner Jun 27 $13 +$7 +55%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Jun 27 $6 +$17 +285%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 27 $20 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks - Map 1 Winner Jun 27 $7 −$7 -99%
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs roamsfiest (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan P Jun 27 $8 −$2 -20%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $60 +$9 +16%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $42 +$13 +30%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 26 $5 $0 +9%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $5 $0 -4%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dracula Jun 26 $7 +$5 +65%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $38 +$5 +12%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $35 +$3 +8%
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A Jun 25 $31 +$3 +11%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C Jun 25 $4 +$1 +36%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs 9INE (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr Jun 25 $3 +$2 +82%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner Jun 25 $2 +$2 +76%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs 9INE - Map 2 Winner Jun 25 $2 −$2 -75%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs FOKUS (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B Jun 25 $16 −$16 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $13 +$3 +23%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $13 $0 +3%
Counter-Strike: 9INE vs GamerLegion (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A Jun 24 $29 −$16 -56%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs FOKUS - Map 2 Winner Jun 24 $9 −$9 -100%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks - Map 2 Winner Jun 24 $3 −$1 -43%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs FOKUS (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B Jun 24 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks - Map 1 Winner Jun 24 $4 −$4 -99%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group Jun 24 $32 −$32 -99%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $22 +$10 +46%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $18 −$18 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $17 +$1 +8%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $15 +$2 +14%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Enjoy (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q Jun 23 $10 +$1 +12%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $264 −$263 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $223 +$41 +18%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $227 −$5 -2%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $181 +$47 +26%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $175 +$5 +3%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $88 +$27 +31%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $40 +$14 +34%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $143 +$44 +31%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $100 +$17 +17%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $21 +$4 +18%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $15 +$7 +46%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $17 −$17 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $10 +$6 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eur SELL Nigma Galaxy 85¢ $23 29m
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs ECHO - Map 2 Winner BUY Sharks 94¢ $55 1h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 62¢ $5 2h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eur BUY Nigma Galaxy 75¢ $20 2h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 72¢ $16 15h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $30 15h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 59¢ $18 18h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 76¢ $50 18h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? SELL No 100¢ $69 18h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 90¢ $62 18h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 99¢ $62 18h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 92¢ $20 19h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 73¢ $10 19h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $23 20h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN SELL Inner Circle Esports 87¢ $24 24h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks - Map 2 Winner BUY Inner Circle Esports 64¢ $13 26h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN BUY Inner Circle Esports 22¢ $6 26h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY Natus Vincere 66¢ $20 27h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks - Map 1 Winner BUY Inner Circle Esports 52¢ $7 27h
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs roamsfiest (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan P SELL Johnny Speeds 60¢ $6 27h
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs roamsfiest (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan P BUY Johnny Speeds 74¢ $8 28h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 86¢ $60 43h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 80¢ $5 45h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 72¢ $5 46h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 57¢ $5 46h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 77¢ $35 46h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $5 46h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 72¢ $7 46h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dracula BUY Inner Circle Esports 60¢ $7 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 89¢ $38 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $66.47 · official $66.47 (match) · 2605 history records