Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:22:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
92 0x92e8…083d crypto 12 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$34 (+8%) realized +$34 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate100%12W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day20.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)+0.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +10.8% +0.2% 100% 58% -0.4%
≤30d 12 +10.8% +0.2% 100% 58% -0.4%
≤90d 12 +10.8% +0.2% 100% 58% -0.4%
all 12 +10.8% +0.2% 100% 58% -0.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.2% 58% -0.4%
10% -9.4% 0% -9.9%
15% -18.1% 0% -18.6%
20% -26.1% 0% -26.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 27% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$34
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses12 / 0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)12 / 12
History coverage1d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day20.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 12 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $67 +$7 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 17 $28 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $57 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 17 $63 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $35 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $22 +$3 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $67 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $27 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $25 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $57 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $27 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $25 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $61 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $35 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $29 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $26 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $28 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $25 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $28 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $25 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $25 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $22 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 25 history records