Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T05:01:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x92eb…986a other 333 markets active 1h ago coverage 136d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 135d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$403 (+0%) realized −$204 · open +$607
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate40%156W / 238L
Whale WR65%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$517per market
Trades / day23.1pace
Fees−$183est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$8,814now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5,222
7 days−$5,273
14 days−$5,625
30 days−$4,800
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% +$5,023
sports 17% −$361
world 10% +$606
politics 9% +$248
economics 8% +$182
finance 4% +$114
crypto 1% +$1
culture 0% −$18
tech 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-29.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 89 -78.2% -80.3% 8% 7% -56.9%
≤30d 121 -58.7% -62.6% 19% 9% -22.8%
≤90d 240 -28.7% -35.5% 34% 14% -9.1%
all 394 -22.2% -29.6% 40% 16% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -29.6% 16% -9.3%
10% ← realistic here -36.4% 12% -18.0%
15% -42.5% 10% -25.9%
20% -48.1% 8% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 65% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -39% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$65 vs −$45 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$8,814
Realized−$204
Unrealized+$607
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses156 / 238
Whale WR (big bets)65%
Est. fees paid−$183
Open positions16
Markets (closed)394 / 333
History coverage136d ⚠
Avg bet$517
Trades / day23.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 394 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Unit FDV above $200M one day after launch? No 39¢ 44¢ $1,768 $2,015 +$246 (+14%)
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 91¢ 87¢ $1,925 $1,855 −$70 (-4%)
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 by December 31, 2026? No 74¢ 84¢ $1,105 $1,244 +$139 (+13%)
Will the Democratic Republic of Congo win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 96¢ $753 $752 −$2 (-0%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 78¢ $539 $606 +$67 (+12%)
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 18¢ 58¢ $166 $527 +$361 (+217%)
Another crypto hack over $100m by June 30? No 78¢ 94¢ $375 $455 +$80 (+21%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 65¢ 46¢ $581 $406 −$175 (-30%)
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 83¢ 76¢ $250 $227 −$23 (-9%)
Will Arc launch a token by September 30 2026? No 60¢ 68¢ $158 $181 +$24 (+15%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 10¢ 15¢ $102 $154 +$52 (+51%)
Will CryptoPunks floor price reach 50 ETH before 2027? No 79¢ 66¢ $150 $124 −$26 (-17%)
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 74¢ 52¢ $150 $104 −$46 (-30%)
Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by June 30, 2027? No 69¢ 56¢ $113 $91 −$22 (-19%)
Ink FDV above $2B one day after launch? No 82¢ 84¢ $70 $72 +$2 (+2%)
Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026? No 26¢ 29¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 141 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Santa deliver fewer than 7,900,000,000 gifts for Christmas 2025? Jun 22 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 25? Jun 22 $64 −$64 -100%
Will Celo win 2025 Uniswap Cup? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Texans vs. Seahawks Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Liverpool vs. Atletico Madrid end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 +$18 +176%
Nigeria vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $50 −$50 -100%
Will PSG win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 22 $220 −$220 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2025-11-04? Jun 22 $33 −$34 -104%
Colts vs. Seahawks Jun 22 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Trump say "Obliterated" or "Obliteration / Obliterating" during t Jun 22 $31 −$31 -100%
US government shutdown by October 1? Jun 22 $170 −$170 -100%
Will Trump talk to Elon Musk in November? Jun 22 $66 −$66 -100%
Will Trump say "Nazi" or "Holocaust" during the Hanukkah Reception eve Jun 22 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Trump say "Biden" or "Obama" during Signing tonight? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Ravens vs. Bengals Jun 22 $106 −$106 -100%
Will Atrium Academy win 2025 Uniswap Cup? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Yoon in jail before August? Jun 22 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Chelsea FC vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw? Jun 22 $35 −$35 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $120K and $121K on July 21? Jun 22 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Trump say "Border" 5+ times during events with UK Prime Minister Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2025-12-15? Jun 22 $200 −$200 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? Jun 22 $20 −$235 -1177%
Will Trump say "Anti-Semitic" or "Anti-Semitism" during the Hanukkah R Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Cardinals vs. Padres Jun 22 $0 −$25 -16549%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on July 31? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Rams vs. Falcons Jun 22 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2025-11-17? Jun 22 $90 −$90 -100%
Will World win 2025 Uniswap Cup? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Celtic win on 2025-08-26? Jun 22 $39 −$39 -100%
Will WalletConnect win 2025 Uniswap Cup? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-11-01? Jun 22 $84 −$84 -100%
Will Brighton win on 2025-08-24? Jun 22 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Real Madrid vs. Osasuna end in a draw? Jun 22 $28 −$28 -100%
Will LayerZero win 2025 Uniswap Cup? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 25, 3PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Trump" 3+ times during Pennsylvania events on December Jun 22 $81 −$81 -100%
Will XRP dip to $1.4 in July? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Zohran Mamdani rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 202 Jun 22 $261 −$261 -100%
Will NYC have more than 7 inches of precipitation in December? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump say "Olympics" at the FIFA World Cup Draw on December 5? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-01-28? Jun 22 $75 −$75 -100%
Will Aztec win 2025 Uniswap Cup? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Panthers vs. Saints Jun 22 $35 −$35 -100%
Panthers vs. Packers Jun 22 $243 −$243 -100%
Bills vs. Falcons Jun 22 $210 −$210 -100%
Marlins vs. Brewers Jun 22 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Sean McDermott win NFL Coach of the Year? Jun 22 $18 −$20 -107%
Will Santa deliver between 8,100,000,000 and 8,200,000,000 gifts for C Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump nominate David Malpass as the next Fed chair? Jun 22 $13 −$13 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? A BUY 3¢ $31 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND BUY 28¢ $77 1h
Will Arc launch a token by September 30 2026? BUY No 74¢ $32 1h
Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL Yes 99¢ $662 1h
Will New Zealand win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $2,948 1h
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 39¢ $37 2d
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 92¢ $143 2d
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL No 69¢ $205 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 BUY 55¢ $76 2d
Will Hyperliquid reach $76 in June? SELL No 42¢ $112 6d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND W BUY 52¢ $51 7d
Will Arc launch a token by June 30 2026? SELL No 99¢ $338 7d
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 55¢ $108 7d
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 56¢ $51 7d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? AND BUY 6¢ $77 10d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? AND Will United States win on 2026-06-1 BUY 28¢ $70 10d
Will Hyperliquid reach $76 in June? SELL No 83¢ $449 10d
Will Hyperliquid reach $76 in June? BUY No 87¢ $1,009 11d
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL No 56¢ $2 11d
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL No 56¢ $8 11d
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL No 56¢ $12 11d
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL No 56¢ $10 11d
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL No 56¢ $8 11d
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL No 56¢ $16 11d
Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by June 30, 2027? BUY No 56¢ $5 12d
Will Arc launch a token by September 30 2026? BUY No 61¢ $61 13d
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 78¢ $113 13d
Unit FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY No 40¢ $31 13d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $58 13d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $60 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,813.62 · official $8,918.41 · 3500 history records