Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:56:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
92 0x92eb…642c other 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$768 (+11%) realized +$779 · open −$11
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate48%13W / 14L
Drawdown71%max
Avg bet$224per market
Trades / day22.9pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit34%portable
Net worth$152now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 88% +$1,202
sports 7% +$125
world 3% +$66
crypto 2% −$106
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+4.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +15.8% +4.7% 48% 44% +8.5%
≤30d 27 +15.8% +4.7% 48% 44% +8.5%
≤90d 27 +15.8% +4.7% 48% 44% +8.5%
all 27 +15.8% +4.7% 48% 44% +8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +4.7% 44% +8.5%
10% ← realistic here -5.3% 41% -1.9%
15% -14.4% 37% -11.4%
20% -22.8% 33% -20.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +63% → late -28% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$229 vs −$120 · ×1.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.77 per $1 lost it wins $1.77
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$152
Realized+$779
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses13 / 14
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions5
Markets (closed)27 / 32
History coverage6d
Avg bet$224
Trades / day22.9
Drawdown71%
Kalshi-fit34%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Yes $60 $63 +$3 (+5%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $31 $35 +$3 (+11%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $33 $32 −$1 (-4%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $33 $22 −$11 (-34%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? Yes 13¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-87%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,632 +$858 +53%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $1,265 −$727 -57%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $174 −$170 -97%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $163 +$112 +68%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $300 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $114 −$111 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $109 −$106 -97%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Jun 20 $82 −$80 -97%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $234 +$360 +154%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $950 +$750 +79%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $92 −$90 -98%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? Jun 20 $934 +$341 +36%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $52 −$51 -97%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 19 $15 +$1 +5%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 19 $160 +$43 +27%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $40 +$8 +20%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $202 +$141 +70%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 −$19 -97%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 19 $21 +$18 +88%
Will Justin Gaethje win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $5 +$28 +550%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $18 +$38 +206%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $77 +$276 +359%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $103 −$102 -99%
Will Alex Pereira win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $82 −$80 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $62 53m
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? SELL Yes 74¢ $154 1h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? SELL Yes 73¢ $107 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 19¢ $15 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 10¢ $15 1h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 73¢ $101 1h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 71¢ $252 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 22¢ $36 1h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 62¢ $202 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 24¢ $82 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 12¢ $154 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 24¢ $153 1h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 60¢ $506 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 1h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 54¢ $275 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 33¢ $304 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 36¢ $332 1h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? SELL Yes 43¢ $256 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 37¢ $215 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 38¢ $324 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 1h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $163 1h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 33¢ $204 1h
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? SELL Yes 30¢ $155 1h
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? SELL Yes 30¢ $70 1h
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? SELL Yes 29¢ $75 1h
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 29¢ $8 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 17¢ $26 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $151.70 · official $151.73 (match) · 145 history records