Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T23:11:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

92 0x92ec…649b crypto 15 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$22 (+10%) realized +$22 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip

Net edge-4%after slip

Net WR67%break-even

Win rate67%10W / 5L

Drawdown94%max

Avg bet$15per market

Trades / day26.0pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +67%

net ROI/market (all)+12.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	15	+24.4%	+12.6%	67%	67%	+10.4%
≤30d	15	+24.4%	+12.6%	67%	67%	+10.4%
≤90d	15	+24.4%	+12.6%	67%	67%	+10.4%
all	15	+24.4%	+12.6%	67%	67%	+10.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover26.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	+12.6%	67%	+10.4%
10% ← realistic here	+1.8%	67%	-0.1%
15%	-8.0%	60%	-9.8%
20%	-17.1%	47%	-18.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 25% · top 2 39% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +24% · $-wt +22% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +26% → late +23% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$12 vs −$14 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.74 per $1 lost it wins $1.74

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$22

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses10 / 5

Open positions0

Markets (closed)15 / 15

History coverage1d

Avg bet$15

Trades / day26.0

Drawdown94%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 15 Trades

no open positions

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Jun 26	$16	+$5	+30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Jun 26	$21	+$30	+140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Jun 26	$16	−$5	-31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	Jun 26	$11	+$17	+155%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET	Jun 26	$11	−$11	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	Jun 26	$16	+$7	+42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET	Jun 26	$11	+$5	+46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	Jun 26	$21	−$21	-98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	Jun 26	$11	+$6	+53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET	Jun 26	$22	−$22	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	Jun 26	$11	−$11	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET	Jun 26	$21	+$13	+62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET	Jun 26	$16	+$13	+79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	Jun 26	$16	+$15	+92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	Jun 26	$11	+$10	+95%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	SELL Up	81¢	$21	27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	BUY Up	56¢	$16	28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	SELL Up	96¢	$52	31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	BUY Up	36¢	$21	35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	SELL Up	35¢	$11	37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	BUY Up	44¢	$16	40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$27	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	BUY Up	35¢	$11	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	SELL Up	66¢	$23	17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	BUY Up	41¢	$16	17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET	SELL Up	93¢	$15	17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET	BUY Up	58¢	$11	17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	SELL Up	1¢	$0	17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	BUY Up	38¢	$21	17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET	BUY Up	27¢	$11	17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	SELL Up	88¢	$16	17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	BUY Up	52¢	$11	17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$34	19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET	BUY Up	56¢	$21	19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET	BUY Up	30¢	$22	19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET	SELL Up	73¢	$29	19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET	BUY Up	36¢	$16	19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	SELL Up	84¢	$31	19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	BUY Up	39¢	$16	19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	BUY Up	52¢	$11	19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	BUY Up	48¢	$11	19h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 31 history records