Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:49:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5

score

92 0x92ed…7aa1 other 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$47 (+46%) realized +$49 · open −$2

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip

Net edge-37%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate33%1W / 2L

Drawdown18%max

Avg bet$26per market

Trades / day0.6pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)-36.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
≤30d	3	-30.2%	-36.8%	33%	33%	+58.3%
≤90d	3	-30.2%	-36.8%	33%	33%	+58.3%
all	3	-30.2%	-36.8%	33%	33%	+58.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.6 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-36.8%	33%	+58.3%
10%	-42.9%	33%	+43.2%
15%	-48.4%	33%	+29.3%
20%	-53.5%	33%	+16.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +75% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -30% · $-wt +75% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$56 vs −$5 · ×11.12 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×5.56 per $1 lost it wins $5.56

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage

Net worth$38

Realized+$49

Unrealized−$2

Win rate (resolved)33%

Wins / losses1 / 2

Open positions1

Markets (closed)3 / 4

History coverage7d

Avg bet$26

Trades / day0.6

Drawdown18%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	1¢	1¢	$40	$38	−$2 (-4%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 25	$5	−$5	-99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 25	$5	−$5	-99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$51	+$56	+109%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	1¢	$41	2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	54¢	$5	10h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	62¢	$5	10h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	47¢	$51	7d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.46 · official $38.46 (match) · 5 history records