Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:50:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x92ef…50fa other 52 markets active 1h ago coverage 447d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$8 (+1%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +25% what you keep after slip
Net edge+25%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate39%20W / 31L
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% $0
other 23% $0
politics 15% +$1
sports 3% $0
crypto 3% +$16
economics 3% −$3
tech 2% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)+25.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +1.3% -8.3% 25% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 9 +0.2% -9.4% 11% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 9 +0.2% -9.4% 11% 0% -9.5%
all 51 +38.5% +25.3% 39% 6% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +25.3% 6% -8.5%
10% +13.3% 6% -17.2%
15% +2.3% 4% -25.2%
20% -7.7% 4% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 78% · top 2 86% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +38% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +75% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.68 per $1 lost it wins $1.68
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

447d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses20 / 31
Open positions1
Markets (closed)51 / 52
History coverage447d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 91¢ 91¢ $47 $47 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $18 +$2 +9%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $23 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $72 −$1 -1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 12 $27 $0 -2%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $36 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 10 $6 $0 -4%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $48 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $47 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 05 $5 $0 -5%
Will Walmart buy TikTok? Jun 28 $6 $0 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? Jun 25 $7 $0 +1%
Will Amazon buy TikTok? Jun 22 $7 −$6 -80%
Will Palmeiras win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 12 $1 $0 +23%
Will Ethereum dip to $1800 in June? Jun 12 $2 $0 +20%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 100% and 150% on August Jun 12 $5 $0 +2%
Will Jennifer Geerlings-Simons be the next president of Suriname after Jun 11 $7 $0 +1%
Will 'The Fantastic Four: First Steps' have the best domestic opening Jun 09 $7 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 08 $7 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 05 $2 $0 +3%
Will Han Duck-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 05 $6 $0 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2025? May 16 $6 −$1 -8%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2025? May 11 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1400 in May? May 11 $6 $0 +0%
Will Edi Rama be the next Prime Minister of Albania after the 2025 ele May 10 $13 $0 +2%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? May 10 $13 $0 +0%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 09 $11 $0 +0%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Minnesota Vikings? May 09 $3 $0 -2%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? May 09 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Alliance for a Great Albania win the most seats in the next A May 08 $13 $0 +0%
Will PRO hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the May 08 $13 $0 +0%
Will Israel qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 08 $12 $0 -0%
US military action on Yemen by Friday? May 07 $13 $0 +1%
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 07 $13 $0 +0%
Will Nicușor Dan win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romanian p May 07 $13 $0 +3%
Will U.S. GDP growth be greater than 2% in Q1 2025? May 05 $14 −$3 -21%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? Apr 30 $11 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Apr 30 $14 $0 -0%
Will Robert Sarah be the next pope? Apr 29 $13 $0 -1%
Will the Greens be part of the next German government? Apr 28 $13 $0 +0%
Will 'How to Train Your Dragon' have the best domestic opening weekend Apr 28 $16 $0 -0%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? Apr 26 $6 $0 +0%
Will another coalition form the next German Government? Apr 26 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Conservative Party win by 0–24 seats? Apr 26 $5 $0 -0%
Will Han Duck-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president? Apr 26 $10 $0 +4%
Will Vladimir Putin attend Pope Francis' funeral? Apr 25 $16 $0 -0%
Will BSW be part of the next German government? Apr 25 $25 $0 +0%
Will Elena Lasconi win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romanian Apr 25 $25 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $28 $0 +0%
Will Ken Paxton be a member of the Trump administration? Apr 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $47 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $14 8h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $5 8h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $29 8h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $47 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 25¢ $20 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 23¢ $14 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 95¢ $23 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $23 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 36¢ $46 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 36¢ $46 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 56¢ $6 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 56¢ $21 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $27 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 32¢ $15 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 32¢ $2 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 32¢ $7 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 33¢ $15 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 33¢ $10 7d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 87¢ $36 7d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 87¢ $31 7d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 87¢ $4 7d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 7d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 7d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $6 7d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $48 8d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $48 8d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $47 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.32 · official $47.32 (match) · 184 history records