Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:06:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
92 0x92f0…0451 world 32 markets active 0h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$636 (+9%) realized +$435 · open +$206
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate74%20W / 7L
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$222per market
Trades / day18.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$1,084now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$397
7 days+$432
14 days+$435
30 days+$435
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% +$603
politics 30% $0
sports 13% +$7
other 5% +$30
culture 0% +$1
economics 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-0.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +10.1% -0.3% 76% 32% -2.1%
≤30d 27 +9.5% -0.9% 74% 30% -2.2%
≤90d 27 +9.5% -0.9% 74% 30% -2.2%
all 27 +9.5% -0.9% 74% 30% -2.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.9% 30% -2.2%
10% -10.4% 22% -11.6%
15% -19.1% 7% -20.1%
20% -27.0% 7% -28.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$11 · ×2.3 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.67 per $1 lost it wins $7.67
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$1,084
Realized+$435
Unrealized+$206
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses20 / 7
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)27 / 32
History coverage11d
Avg bet$222
Trades / day18.8
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 66¢ 83¢ $775 $973 +$198 (+26%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 19¢ 19¢ $72 $69 −$3 (-4%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 58¢ 94¢ $17 $28 +$11 (+63%)
Will Marco Rubio sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? No 85¢ 81¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-4%)
Will Mark Juncosa be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO? No 98¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Starmer out by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $10 $0 +3%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $18 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $8 +$2 +31%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $414 +$100 +24%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $285 +$72 +25%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $49 −$41 -85%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $342 +$37 +11%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $260 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 13 $31 −$16 -52%
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by July 31, 2026? Jun 13 $180 +$120 +67%
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $386 +$123 +32%
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 12 $78 +$1 +1%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 12 $283 +$3 +1%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 12 $243 −$3 -1%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 10 $1,204 −$4 -0%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026? Jun 09 $134 +$12 +9%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 22, 2026? Jun 09 $18 +$2 +11%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $19 +$1 +7%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $4 +$6 +156%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $150 +$8 +5%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $11 $0 +3%
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Jun 09 $177 +$1 +1%
Will "The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act" Opening Weekend Box Of Jun 08 $29 +$1 +4%
Will Bahrain vs. Syria end in a draw? Jun 08 $897 +$7 +1%
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 07 $103 +$3 +3%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 06 $47 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $71 13m
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $15 17m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 82¢ $82 17m
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $57 31m
Starmer out by June 15, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 35m
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $18 35m
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 100¢ $10 35m
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 100¢ $20 35m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $416 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL Yes 99¢ $199 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 99¢ $213 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 78¢ $226 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 4¢ $8 2h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL No 98¢ $196 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $74 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 56¢ $112 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL Yes 59¢ $159 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $52 3h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 44¢ $75 3h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 40¢ $38 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $45 3h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 62¢ $3 3h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 62¢ $3 3h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 62¢ $3 3h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 3h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 24¢ $8 3h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 24¢ $41 3h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY No 76¢ $151 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,083.71 · official $1,083.72 (match) · 215 history records