Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:23:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x92f1…18e6 other 122 markets active 0h ago coverage 407d
TRAPdo not copy
Total PnL +$94 (+2%) realized +$140 · open −$40
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate30%36W / 83L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$48
7 days+$48
14 days+$48
30 days+$48
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 87% +$273
crypto 12% −$206
sports 1% +$48
economics 0% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-25.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +165.0% +139.7% 100% 100% +139.7%
≤30d 1 +165.0% +139.7% 100% 100% +139.7%
≤90d 23 -37.4% -43.3% 22% 22% -44.8%
all 119 -17.4% -25.3% 30% 21% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.3% 21% -7.2%
10% -32.4% 19% -16.1%
15% -38.9% 17% -24.2%
20% -44.9% 11% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -39% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$13 · ×2.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

407d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized+$140
Unrealized−$40
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses36 / 83
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)119 / 122
History coverage407d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 119 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Yes 38¢ 38¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Yes 34¢ 34¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 41¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-10? Yes 33¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $29 +$48 +165%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Apr 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Apr 09 $10 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 Apr 09 $9 −$7 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Apr 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Apr 09 $10 −$3 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Apr 09 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Apr 09 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Elon tweet 375–389 times August 1–August 8? Apr 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Apr 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon tweet 315–329 times August 1–August 8? Apr 09 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from September 16 to September 23, Apr 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon tweet 300–314 times August 1–August 8? Apr 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 Apr 09 $30 −$20 -67%
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? Apr 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 Apr 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Apr 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Apr 09 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Apr 09 $5 +$9 +174%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Apr 09 $5 +$9 +175%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Apr 09 $5 +$4 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Apr 09 $5 −$1 -16%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 Jan 06 $25 −$3 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jan 05 $4 $0 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 Jan 05 $10 −$3 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jan 05 $14 −$1 -4%
XRP Up or Down - January 5, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jan 05 $10 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jan 05 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jan 05 $10 +$14 +138%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 9 to September 16, 2 Sep 16 $10 +$5 +49%
Will Elon tweet 240–254 times August 1–August 8? Aug 05 $60 +$38 +63%
Will Elon tweet 255 or more times August 1–August 8? Aug 03 $140 +$616 +440%
Will Elon tweet 225–239 times August 1–August 8? Aug 03 $10 +$18 +178%
Will Elon tweet 210–224 times August 1–August 8? Aug 03 $9 +$4 +48%
Will Elon tweet 195–209 times August 1–August 8? Aug 02 $17 +$11 +64%
Will Elon tweet 180–194 times August 1–August 8? Aug 02 $20 +$1 +6%
Will Elon tweet 165–179 times August 1–August 8? Aug 02 $48 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 150–164 times August 1–August 8? Aug 02 $20 −$1 -5%
Will Elon tweet 135–149 times August 1–August 8? Aug 01 $20 −$3 -14%
Will Elon tweet 150–164 times July 25–August 1? Aug 01 $255 +$23 +9%
Will Elon tweet 165–179 times July 25–August 1? Aug 01 $205 −$19 -9%
Will Elon tweet 210–224 times July 25–August 1? Aug 01 $37 −$28 -74%
Will Elon tweet 180–194 times July 25–August 1? Aug 01 $95 −$35 -37%
Will Elon tweet 195–209 times July 25–August 1? Aug 01 $40 −$26 -66%
Will Elon tweet 135–149 times July 25–August 1? Jul 27 $50 +$12 +24%
Will Elon tweet 120–134 times July 25–August 1? Jul 26 $13 +$3 +25%
Will Elon tweet 120–134 times July 4–11? Jul 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon tweet 195–209 times July 18–25? Jul 25 $326 +$17 +5%
Will Elon tweet 180–194 times July 18–25? Jul 25 $125 +$50 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $77 13m
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $29 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 41¢ $41 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $20 1h
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $10 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $0 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $6 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $5 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Down 83¢ $10 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $11 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Up 31¢ $7 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $15 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $8 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $6 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Down 84¢ $14 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $9 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Down 41¢ $4 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 66d
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 BUY Yes 72¢ $7 159d
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 SELL Yes 19¢ $5 159d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.16 · official $30.16 (match) · 388 history records