Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:36:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x92f2…d1fd other 105 markets active 1h ago coverage 454d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate36%37W / 67L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% −$3
other 23% +$1
sports 17% $0
politics 8% +$3
economics 3% $0
crypto 3% −$1
finance 1% $0
tech 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.2% -9.7% 22% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 29 -0.1% -9.7% 31% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 67 -0.1% -9.6% 25% 0% -9.7%
all 104 +0.5% -9.1% 36% 2% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 2% -9.5%
10% -17.8% 2% -18.2%
15% -25.7% 2% -26.1%
20% -33.0% 1% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

454d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses37 / 67
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)104 / 105
History coverage454d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 104 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 96¢ 95¢ $32 $31 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $67 $0 -1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $69 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $46 +$1 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $32 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $33 −$1 -3%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $47 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $14 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $37 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 11 $33 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 10 $18 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $89 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 08 $33 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $10 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $65 $0 -1%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $33 $0 -0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $24 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $65 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $48 −$1 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 31 $134 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $31 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 28 $37 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 27 $30 −$2 -8%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $74 +$1 +1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 24 $93 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $34 $0 +1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 23 $33 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 21 $32 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 20 $16 +$1 +4%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $34 $0 -1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 16 $74 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $68 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 25 $34 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $2 $0 -3%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 24 $37 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $1 $0 +4%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $6 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 23 $18 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $70 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $33 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $34 $0 -0%
Will Celta win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Apr 15 $37 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $67 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? Apr 14 $40 −$1 -2%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $31 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 12 $130 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $66 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 05 $34 $0 +0%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 05 $30 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $32 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $35 10h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $35 10h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $28 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $4 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $9 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $23 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $21 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $15 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $35 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 50¢ $18 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 50¢ $18 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 82¢ $32 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 82¢ $32 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $18 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $14 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $33 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $14 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 36¢ $3 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 36¢ $11 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $28 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $8 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.48 · official $31.48 (match) · 353 history records